Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund

A gestora identifica trade policy uncertainty como driver central do trimestre — historicamente alta levou a steep declines em Abril com market averages a entrarem bear market e investor sentiment a atingir extreme bearishness. Mercados sharply rebounded à medida que tarifas foram pausadas e revelaram-se far less punitive que draconian scenarios introduced on Liberation Day. A época de resultados serviu de catalisador adicional: impacto esperado de tarifas mostrou-se manageable em muitos casos. A gestora espera que continued uncertainty on trade policy persista no foreseeable future mas que o mercado, for now, appears willing to heavily discount headlines associated with negotiating tactics. Reduced trade uncertainty é key assumption da perspectiva construtiva.

• Liberation Day como pico de uncertainty trigger do bear market
• Pause das tarifas seguida de sharp rebound nos mercados
• Época de resultados com impacto tarifário manageable
• Bifurcação de impacto sectorial — hardware/semis hit, software resilient

A gestora identifica explicitamente que many of the momentum stocks associated with the AI investment theme surged as large hyperscalers either reiterated or raised their capital spending plans and provided strong evidence of continued strength in user adoption trends. Tema é considerado pilar de tecnologia para a segunda metade do ano, embora reconheça que a perspectiva construtiva para H2 envolve broadening of the market beyond the AI investment theme. Dentro de cyclicals, AI data center buildout permanece favorable tailwind para companies throughout electrical equipment industry à medida que utilities ramp up spending para meet rising demand for power generation.

• Hyperscalers reiteram/aumentam capex pós-Liberation Day
• Momentum stocks AI surged como recuperação T2
• AI data center buildout sustenta electrical equipment
• User adoption trends como evidência de durabilidade

A perspectiva para aerospace e defense continues to remain strong. Signs of improvement in manufacturing bottlenecks throughout the aerospace supply chain suggest que os largest aircraft manufacturers appear to be on track to ramp monthly production rates toward targets. Defense companies should also get a boost from an increasingly tumultuous geopolitical landscape, alongside growing defense spending by European nations as they begin to meet their NATO commitments. Woodward (top contributor T2, top 10 cover-page, 2,00% average weight) é exposição directa ao aftermarket aeroespacial e à inflexão de production rates; AeroVironment (top contributor T2) capta defense technology integration e transformational acquisition of BlueHalo; ATI (top contributor T2) posicionado em specialty alloys tight market com aerospace OEM contracts.

• Aerospace supply chain bottlenecks a aliviar
• Major aircraft manufacturers on track para ramp rates
• European NATO spending commitments a materializar
• Specialty alloys aerospace exposure em ATI
• AeroVironment + BlueHalo como transformational acquisition

Dentro de energy sector, a perspectiva para natural gas prices favorable given rising LNG exports e higher electricity demand do buildout of data centers. Em contraste, oil prices appear likely to remain subdued à medida que OPEC+ shifts its strategy to win back market share from North American producers. Selectivity remains key. Esta dynamic explica directamente o sofrimento de Aris Water Solutions (top detractor, -0,46 pp; concerns sobre downturn em oil prices a impactar drilling activity no Delaware sub-basin) e Viper Energy (top detractor, -0,27 pp; pressão por decline em oil prices e OPEC+ a trazer produção online). A gestora mantém confidence em both names: Aris fornece essential service increasingly necessário à medida que shale wells maturem; Viper beneficia de relationship com Diamondback para visibility de growth.

• LNG exports e data center power demand como tailwinds natural gas
• OPEC+ a recuperar quota como pressão estrutural oil
• Shale wells maturity como driver de water services
• Diamondback relationship como diferenciador Viper

A gestora dedica secção extensa ao tema. Healthcare é o largest sector dos EUA com $5 trillion de despesa anual e 17,7% do GDP, a crescer cerca de 5% ao ano impulsionado por aging population e increasing prevalence of chronic conditions (75% dos healthcare costs). Apesar de size e importance, healthcare underperformou em recent years a trabalhar excessos pós-COVID e overhang regulatório com novos directors e commissioners installed em HHS, CMS, FDA e CDC. Uncertainty sobre provisões do One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act cria additional angst. Razões para optimismo: M&A activity picked up em medical devices e biotech; valuation cheaper que outros sectores; interesse de generalist investors esperado a trend positively em H2 após potential passage do OBBB e finalização de reimbursement schedules CMS. Larger active bets em U.S.-centric distributors com margens estáveis e free cash flow substancial enquanto se aguarda clareza. Merit Medical (top detractor T2) ilustra: tariff concerns + EPS projecções baixadas, mas expectativa de mitigar metade do impacto até 2026.

• Healthcare 17,7% do GDP a crescer 5%/ano com aging population
• Overhang regulatório com nomeações HHS/CMS/FDA/CDC
• One Big Beautiful Bill como uncertainty driver
• M&A em medical devices e biotech a recuperar
• Distributors U.S.-centric como larger active bet defensiva

Markets entered the second quarter with renewed volatility, com announcement of sweeping tariffs em early April a desencadear sharp sell-off em equities, particularmente em hardware e semiconductor stocks. Em contraste, software companies proved to be more resilient com recurring revenue models e lower exposure to global supply chains. Sentiment quickly deteriorated com fears de prolonged trade conflict, mas concerns proved largely overdone à medida que o trimestre progrediu. Reassuring commentary e results durante a época de resultados ajudou ease fears e sparked strong rebound. Despite lingering uncertainty, inflation expectations remained stable. Technology companies com strong balance sheets e consistent cash flow generation stand out. Cellebrite (top detractor T2) ilustra a tensão: forecasted weakness em close deals com government customers devido a leadership changes e unsettled budgets, mas dois secular trends remain intact (smartphone data em law enforcement e chain of custody compliance).

• Hardware/semis penalizados no selloff abril
• Software resilient via recurring revenue e baixa supply chain exposure
• M&A e IPO rebound como backdrop construtivo
• Secular trends em cloud, AI, IoT, payments

A gestora espera que inflationary data remain relatively favorable, allowing the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates na segunda metade do ano. Lower interest rates são key assumption supporting a perspectiva construtiva, em combinação com reduced trade and policy uncertainty e potential fiscal stimulus. Estas condições should foster a favorable macroeconomic environment e allow broadening do mercado beyond the AI investment theme. No sector financials, boutique advisory firms estão poised to benefit from an increase in M&A activity that will accompany the eventual decrease in interest rates.

• Inflação benign como precondição para cortes H2
• Cortes Fed como driver de M&A em boutique advisory
• Broadening do mercado para além de AI como tese

Further resolution of trade policy uncertainty in coming months should help promote investment in U.S. manufacturing, e a gestora believes factory automation spending será a durable investment theme for the next several years. AI data center buildout remains a favorable tailwind para companies throughout electrical equipment industry à medida que utilities ramp up spending para meet rising demand for power generation. ATI (top contributor T2) com newly announced contracts com large OEM customer ilustra dinâmica de re-shoring de supply chains críticas, particularmente em specialty aerospace alloys.

• Factory automation como durable investment theme
• Electrical equipment beneficiária do data center buildout
• Specialty alloys aerospace contracts como exemplo concreto