Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund

Q3 2025 · 1396 palavras · Commentary

Resumo editorial

A Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund recuou ligeiramente no T3 2025 (Class I -0,09%) contra +5,33% do Russell 1000 Value, com fraqueza relativa concentrada em tecnologia de informação e consumer discretionary. Austin Hawley e Brian Fontanella mantêm postura cautelosa face ao rally AI-driven, com valuations acima da média histórica e referem potencial bolha cujo desfecho só o tempo dirá. Top contributors: General Motors, Martin Marietta Materials, L3Harris Technologies, Caterpillar e Sysco. Top detractors: CarMax, lululemon, AIG, Colgate-Palmolive e Texas Instruments. Quatro novas posições iniciadas — FedEx, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Zoetis e Equitable Holdings — financiadas em parte por saídas em lululemon e Target. Gestores antecipam retornos abaixo da média histórica nos próximos cinco anos.

Stance macro

Risk Risk-off

Gestores articulam postura defensiva via disciplina valuation face a mercados accionistas a níveis de avaliação acima da média histórica e sentimento concentrado no tema único de IA. Identificam potencial bolha AI-driven sem certeza de desfecho. Antecipam retornos abaixo da média histórica nos próximos cinco anos e acreditam que active management pode entregar better-than-market returns. Cautela face à divisão do consumidor (top end resiliente, middle/bottom pressionados) como risco para projecções de crescimento de lucros corporativos de double-digit em 2026.

Temas

AI-fuelled boom em tecnologia (+13%) e serviços de comunicação (+12%) continuou a liderar o Russell 1000 no T3. Sentimento em torno de potencial de IA radically change life as we know it remains high. Caterpillar beneficiou de power-generation business tied to data center growth. Gestores reconhecem driver de mercado mas mantêm cautela quanto a valuations e enquanto AI's potential is yet to be fully borne out.

  • Russell 1000 tech +13% e comm services +12% no T3
  • Caterpillar com data center exposure via power generation
  • Sentimento outpacing fundamentals em AI-related names

Gestores articulam explicitly potential bubble (only hindsight will tell), sentiment around AI is driving remarkable equity market returns year to date. Investidores recompensam exposição mínima a IA e desproporcionalmente punem negócios com qualquer risco de disrupção AI ou sem exposição. Ambiente produz interesting opportunities para discerning investors capturarem high-quality companies que o mercado ignora ou pune disproporcionalmente.

  • Potential bubble explicitly articulated
  • Sentimento desligado de fundamentais em AI names
  • Opportunities em high-quality companies ignored or disproportionately punished

Trade, monetary policy and geopolitics remained the top headlines no T3. General Motors beneficiou de growing clarity around tariffs, melhorando visibility into the likely impact on the company's business. Inversamente, lululemon foi pressionada por tariffs e removal of the de minimis exemption (que isentava imports worth $800 or less from taxes) — exited position. CarMax sofreu pull-forward de purchases ahead of tariffs com industry lull subsequente.

  • GM beneficiária de clarity em tarifas
  • lululemon prejudicada por remoção de de minimis exemption
  • CarMax com pull-forward de purchases ahead of tariffs

L3Harris Technologies, leading defense electronics supplier, capitaliza em strong demand from the US government and its allies em key areas of expertise — including small satellites, secure communications e rocket motors — para impulsionar crescimento de lucros. Cost-cutting efforts bearing fruit em Aerojet Rocketdyne adquirida há dois anos. Share price ainda não reflecte company's opportunity amid US Department of Defense's preparations for potential threats.

  • Procura US Department of Defense para small satellites e secure comms
  • Aerojet Rocketdyne execution improving
  • Aliados US como driver adicional de crescimento de lucros

Investment philosophy nuclear: focar em valuations disconnected from fundamentais subjacentes e long-term growth outlooks. Gestores não são contrarian for its own sake mas struggle to justify valuations of top-performing companies amid AI uncertainty. Quatro novas posições iniciadas (FDX, TMO, ZTS, EQH) baseadas em discount to intrinsic value e structural advantages. Saídas LULU e TGT em favor de oportunidades mais atractivas.

  • Discount to intrinsic value como underwriting criterion para novas posições
  • Hard work of researching high-quality companies markets may be overlooking
  • Active management como driver de better-than-market returns em valuations elevadas

Posições

GM neutral conv. top manter
General Motors
Cyclical

Automobile manufacturer. Beneficiou de growing clarity around tariffs no T3, improving visibility into the likely impact on the company's business. Investidores cheered pela perspectiva de rate cuts, que poderá bolster consumer borrowing e drive increased sales nos próximos trimestres.

Automobile manufacturer General Motors benefited from growing clarity around tariffs, which is in turn improving visibility into the likely impact on the company's business.

"Automobile manufacturer General Motors beneficiou de growing clarity around tariffs, melhorando visibility into the likely impact on the company's business."

MLM neutral conv. top manter
Martin Marietta Materials
Cyclical

Heavy building materials supplier. Optimizing portfolio of product offerings — incluindo upcoming divestiture of Midlothian cement plant to Quikrete. Como infrastructure e non-residential — e possivelmente housing — construction seem poised to improve, Martin Marietta deverá beneficiar do seu competitive positioning como um dos maiores aggregates producers e distributors dos EUA.

Heavy building materials supplier Martin Marietta is taking steps to optimize its portfolio of product offerings — including the upcoming divestiture of its Midlothian cement plant to Quikrete.

"Heavy building materials supplier Martin Marietta está a tomar passos para optimizar o seu portfolio of product offerings — incluindo o upcoming divestiture do seu Midlothian cement plant à Quikrete."

LHX neutral conv. top manter
L3Harris Technologies
Cyclical

Leading defense electronics supplier. Capitaliza em strong demand from the US government and its allies em key areas of expertise — including small satellites, secure communications e rocket motors. Cost-cutting efforts a bearing fruit em Aerojet Rocketdyne (acquired two years ago). Share price ainda não reflecte company's opportunity amid US Department of Defense's preparations for potential threats.

Leading defense electronics supplier L3Harris is capitalizing on strong demand from the US government and its allies in its key areas of expertise — including small satellites, secure communications and rocket motors.

"Leading defense electronics supplier L3Harris está a capitalizar em strong demand from the US government and its allies em key areas of expertise — incluindo small satellites, secure communications e rocket motors."

CAT neutral conv. top manter
Caterpillar
Cyclical

Heavy construction machinery manufacturer. Shares subiram amid positive sentiment em torno do company's power-generation business, que está tied to data center growth. Beneficiária indirecta do buildout de IA infrastructure via power capex requirements.

Shares of heavy construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar rose amid positive sentiment around the company's power-generation business, which is tied to data center growth.

"Acções da heavy construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar subiram amid positive sentiment em torno do company's power-generation business, que está tied to data center growth."

SYY neutral conv. core manter
Sysco Corporation
Stalwart

Food products manufacturer. Viu incrementally positive sales momentum através dos meses de Verão com empresa a parecer estar a beneficiar de internal initiatives — que, se progress similar continuar nos quarters ahead, will be a welcome development.

Sysco Corporation, a food products manufacturer, saw incrementally positive sales performance through the summer months as the company seems to be benefiting from internal initiatives.

"Sysco Corporation, food products manufacturer, viu incrementally positive sales momentum através dos meses de Verão com empresa a beneficiar de internal initiatives."

KMX neutral conv. core manter
CarMax
Turnaround

Used car dealer. Viu meaningful slowdown em used retail vehicle sales e higher credit-loss provisions no captive financing arm. Consumidores pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, leading to industry lull recente. Gestores acreditam que CarMax remains capable of taking share num mercado fragmented over the longer term e mantêm conviction no management team, focused em finding efficiencies para spend more em consumer-facing initiatives.

We believe consumers likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, leading to a recent industry lull.

"Acreditamos que consumidores likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, levando a uma recent industry lull."

LULU bearish conv. starter sair
lululemon athletica
Turnaround

Athletic apparel manufacturer. Efforts to improve merchandise this year fell flat com clientes — exigindo reset do strategic plan e setting back o timeline para expected reacceleration. Increased competition, evolving fashion trends, tariffs e remoção da de minimis exemption (que isentava imports worth $800 or less from taxes) afectarão lululemon disproportionately. Posição exited durante o trimestre em favor de more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere.

We exited our position during the quarter in favor of more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere.

"Saímos da nossa posição durante o trimestre em favor de more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere."

AIG neutral conv. core manter
American International Group
Cyclical

Property and casualty insurance company. Shares pressed alongside many industry peers à medida que o benefit from pricing em excess of loss costs que insurers beneficiaram over the past few years is waning. Headwind cíclico em pricing power que afecta o sector de forma ampla.

Shares of property and casualty insurance company AIG were pressured alongside many industry peers as the benefit from pricing in excess of loss costs that insurers have benefitted from over the past few years is waning.

"Acções da property and casualty insurance company AIG foram pressionadas alongside many industry peers à medida que o benefit from pricing em excess of loss costs is waning."

CL neutral conv. core manter
Colgate-Palmolive
Stalwart

Consumer goods company. Faced consumer weakness — que broadly pressured o consumer packaged-goods space — e inventory destocking no trimestre, particularmente em online retailers, que turn pressured shares. Headwinds cíclicos vs estruturais com question mark sobre durabilidade da pressão.

Consumer goods company Colgate Palmolive faced consumer weakness — which has broadly pressured the consumer packaged-goods space — and inventory destocking in the quarter, particularly at online retailers, which in turn pressured shares.

"Consumer goods company Colgate-Palmolive enfrentou consumer weakness — que broadly pressured o consumer packaged-goods space — e inventory destocking no trimestre, particularmente em online retailers, que turn pressured shares."

TXN neutral conv. core manter
Texas Instruments
Cyclical

Semiconductor manufacturer. Shares declined à medida que demand em core industrial and automotive end markets has recovered slower than expected. Gestores mantêm conviction em company's competitive advantages em manufacturing, product breadth e direct distribution e antecipam que estes headwinds will be short term.

However, we maintain our conviction in the company's competitive advantages in manufacturing, product breadth and direct distribution and anticipate these headwinds will be short term.

"No entanto, mantemos a nossa conviction em company's competitive advantages em manufacturing, product breadth e direct distribution e antecipamos que estes headwinds will be short term."

FDX bullish conv. core nova posição
FedEx
Turnaround

Transportation, e-commerce and business services company. Materially cut structural costs com plans for further cuts — poderá resultar em parcel business mais eficiente e profitable à medida que volumes recover. LTL business é o industry's largest by revenue com second-highest margins — FedEx plans to spin it off em Junho 2026, dando exposição a high-quality business positioned for growth à medida que industrial production improves. Acções pressed amid extended freight recession — initiation a compelling discount to intrinsic value.

FedEx shares have been pressured recently amid an extended freight recession — we capitalized on the opportunity to initiate a position in a high-quality business with an attractive long-term growth outlook at a compelling discount to its intrinsic value.

"Acções da FedEx estiveram pressionadas recentemente amid an extended freight recession — capitalizámos na oportunidade de iniciar uma posição num high-quality business com atractiva perspectiva de crescimento de longo prazo a compelling discount to its intrinsic value."

TMO bullish conv. core nova posição
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Stalwart

Leader em medical tools e diagnostics space. Well-run business que é structurally advantaged to take market share given the scale and breadth of its product portfolio. Backdrop de slowdown em end markets permitiu capitalizar em depressed share price para adicionar a posição.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is a leader in the medical tools and diagnostics space. We believe it is a well-run business that is structurally advantaged to take market share given the scale and breadth of its product portfolio.

"Thermo Fisher Scientific é um leader em medical tools e diagnostics space. Acreditamos ser um well-run business que é structurally advantaged to take market share given the scale e breadth of its product portfolio."

ZTS bullish conv. core nova posição
Zoetis
Stalwart

Leader em animal health market com leading products para companion animals (pets) e livestock. Broad portfolio com multiple growth drivers e strong pipeline para address several undertreated pet conditions. Concerns sobre um dos seus arthritis drugs used em dogs pressed share price, permitindo introduzir posição abaixo do estimate of intrinsic value.

Zoetis is a leader in the animal health market with leading products for companion animals (pets) and livestock.

"Zoetis é um leader em animal health market com leading products para companion animals (pets) e livestock."

EQH bullish conv. starter nova posição
Equitable Holdings
Turnaround

Empresa em transição de life insurance company para diversified financial company. Transição deverá resultar em melhor profile de lucros, profitability e cash-generation — não reflectido na valuation actual segundo gestores. Tese é mismatch entre current pricing e structural shift do business mix.

Equitable is transitioning from a life insurance company to a more diversified financial company, which should result in a better earnings, profitability and cash-generation profile — which we don't believe is reflected in the current valuation.

"Equitable está em transição de life insurance company para a more diversified financial company, que deverá resultar em melhor profile de lucros, profitability e cash-generation — que não acreditamos estar reflectido na valuation actual."

TGT bearish conv. starter sair
Target
Turnaround

US-based mass retailer. Como o competitive landscape evolved, Target enfrenta a possibilidade de need to reinvest heavily to drive better sales. Posição saída para funding more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere.

Given this, we exited our position to fund more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere.

"Dado isto, saímos da nossa posição para funding more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere."

Citações

Amid what could potentially be a bubble (only hindsight will tell), sentiment around AI is driving remarkable equity market returns year to date.

"Em meio do que poderá potencialmente ser uma bolha (só hindsight dirá), sentiment em torno de IA está a impulsionar remarkable equity market returns year to date."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

AI seems to be all many investors care about.

"IA parece ser tudo o que muitos investidores se preocupam."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

we are not contrarian for its own sake; rather, we find it hard to justify the valuations of some top-performing companies when much remains to be seen about whether — and how — AI will impact businesses in the future.

"não somos contrarian for its own sake; rather, achamos hard to justify as valuations de algumas top-performing companies quando much remains to be seen about whether — and how — AI will impact businesses in the future."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

Equity markets are back to above-average valuation levels, making it difficult to expect returns that match historical averages over the next five years.

"Equity markets estão de volta a above-average valuation levels, dificultando expectar retornos que match historical averages over the next five years."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

we will continue focusing on areas where we believe valuations are disconnected from underlying fundamentals and long-term growth outlooks.

"iremos continuar a focar em áreas onde acreditamos que valuations are disconnected from fundamentais subjacentes e long-term growth outlooks."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

we capitalized on the opportunity to initiate a position in a high-quality business with an attractive long-term growth outlook at a compelling discount to its intrinsic value.

"capitalizámos na oportunidade de iniciar uma posição num high-quality business com atractiva perspectiva de crescimento de longo prazo a compelling discount to its intrinsic value."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q3 2025

Performance

Retornos

T3 2025 — Class I (DHLRX)
-0,09%
YTD
+4,18%
Desde início
+8,82%
Base
net
CAGR desde inception
+8,82%

Benchmark

Russell 1000 Value Index

Período
+5,33%
YTD
+11,65%

Benchmarks alternativos

  • Russell 1000 Index · +7,99% (YTD +14,60%) — Comparativo large cap blend — referenciado pelo gestor como benchmark de mercado largo
  • Russell 3000 Index · +8,00% (YTD +14,00%) — Comparativo all-cap US — referenciado como medida de mercado total US

Contribuidores

Top contributors: GM, MLM, LHX, CAT, SYY
Top detractors: KMX, LULU, AIG, CL, TXN

Attribution

Fraqueza relativa concentrada em tecnologia de informação, que ficou aquém de peers do benchmark; consumer discretionary também posou headwind relativo, assim como financials — positivos em base absoluta mas atrás de benchmark peers. Materiais e industriais foram aditivos no trimestre. Sectorialmente Russell 1000 liderado por tecnologia (+13%) e serviços de comunicação (+12%), com consumer staples como único sector negativo (-2,6%). Top contributors individuais: General Motors, Martin Marietta Materials, L3Harris Technologies, Caterpillar e Sysco. Top detractors: CarMax, lululemon, American International Group, Colgate-Palmolive e Texas Instruments.

Portfólio

Sector tilts

  • Tecnologia · underweight (modest) — Selecção em tecnologia de informação foi maior detractor relativo no T3 com peers do benchmark a beneficiarem mais do rally AI-driven; Texas Instruments pressionada por recuperação lenta em mercados industriais e automóveis
  • Consumo discric. · neutral — Consumer discretionary posou headwind relativo via CarMax e lululemon (esta última exited); General Motors foi top contributor individual com clarity em tarifas
  • Financeiras · neutral — Positivos em base absoluta mas atrás de benchmark peers; AIG pressionada com waning pricing tailwind; Equitable Holdings nova posição
  • Materiais · overweight (modest) — Selecção em materiais foi aditiva no trimestre; Martin Marietta como top contributor via portfolio optimization e exposição estrutural a infraestrutura
  • Industriais · overweight (modest) — Selecção em industriais foi aditiva no trimestre; L3Harris, Caterpillar e novo FedEx (transportation/parcels) ancoram o sector