Diamond Hill Select Fund

Q3 2025 · 1238 palavras · Commentary

Resumo editorial

A Diamond Hill Select Fund avançou +4,98% no T3 2025 (Class I DHLTX) contra +8,18% do Russell 3000 Index, com tecnologia e consumer discretionary a posarem headwinds relativos e industriais e financials como fontes de força. Austin Hawley e Rick Snowdon mantêm postura cautelosa face ao rally AI-driven, articulando explicitamente uma potencial bolha cujo desfecho só o tempo dirá. Top contributors: Mr. Cooper Group, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Cimpress, Red Rock Resorts e Coherent. Top detractors: American International Group, CarMax, Salesforce, Antero Resources e SBA Communications. Quatro novas posições iniciadas — Colgate-Palmolive, Berkshire Hathaway, Zoetis e Adobe — financiadas em parte por saídas em Pfizer e lululemon. Gestores antecipam retornos abaixo da média histórica nos próximos cinco anos.

Stance macro

Risk Risk-off

Gestores articulam postura defensiva via disciplina valuation face a mercados accionistas a níveis de avaliação acima da média histórica e sentimento concentrado no tema único de IA. Identificam potencial bolha AI-driven sem certeza de desfecho — "only hindsight will tell". Antecipam dificuldade em alcançar retornos que match historical averages over the next five years e acreditam que active portfolio management pode entregar better-than-market returns. Cautela face à divisão do consumidor (top end resiliente, middle e bottom pressionados pela inflação e job scarcity) como risco para projecções de crescimento de lucros corporativos de double-digit em 2026.

Temas

AI-fuelled boom em tecnologia (+13%) e serviços de comunicação (+12%) continua a liderar o Russell 3000 no T3, com os dois sectores a impulsionarem grande parte do retorno positivo do índice. Coherent beneficia de strong demand para data center-related products, especialmente optical transceivers. Gestores reconhecem driver de mercado mas mantêm cautela face a valuations e enquanto AI's potential is yet to be fully borne out.

  • Russell 3000 tech +13% e comm services +12% no T3
  • Coherent beneficiária de optical transceivers para data centers
  • Sentimento outpacing fundamentals em AI-related names

Gestores articulam explicitamente potential bubble (only hindsight will tell), com sentimento em torno de IA a impulsionar remarkable equity market returns year to date. Investidores recompensam exposição mínima a IA e disproporcionalmente punem negócios cujos business models possam estar at any risk from AI disruption ou que não estejam sufficiently exposed to AI — "AI seems to be all many investors care about". Ambiente produz interesting opportunities para discerning investors capturarem high-quality companies que o mercado ignora ou pune disproporcionalmente.

  • Potential bubble explicitly articulated
  • Sentimento desligado de fundamentais em AI names
  • Salesforce pressionada por AI disruption fears no core CRM business

Trade, monetary policy and geopolitics remained the top headlines no T3, mesmo com mercados a parecer shrug off any ongoing concerns. CarMax sofreu meaningful slowdown em used retail vehicle sales com consumidores likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, levando a recent industry lull. lululemon (exited) foi pressionada por tariffs e removal of the de minimis exemption. Anúncios iniciais de tarifas do Presidente Trump no fim do T1 e início do T2 contextualizam o setup do T3.

  • CarMax com pull-forward de purchases ahead of tariffs
  • lululemon exited após overhang de tariffs e de minimis removal
  • Mercados a ignorar tariff concerns no T3 apesar do peso nas headlines

Huntington Ingalls Industries, US Department of Defense (DoD) and Navy supplier, está a ver early signs of progress dos seus recent efforts to improve employee attrition. Gestores acreditam que Huntington Ingalls é uma das melhor posicionadas defense companies para meet DoD's need to prepare for a potential conflict in the Pacific — ensuring strong demand for the next five-plus years. À medida que recent labor issues abate, margins should improve over time.

  • DoD Pacific conflict preparation como tailwind de 5+ anos
  • Labor attrition improvement como margin expansion driver
  • Best positioned defense supplier para Navy buildout

Investment philosophy nuclear: focar em valuations disconnected from fundamentais subjacentes e long-term growth outlooks. Gestores não são contrarian for its own sake mas struggle to justify valuations of top-performing companies amid AI uncertainty. Quatro novas posições iniciadas (CL, BRK.B, ZTS, ADBE) baseadas em discount to intrinsic value e structural advantages. Saídas Pfizer e lululemon em favor de oportunidades mais atractivas. Active portfolio management como driver de better-than-market returns nos próximos cinco anos.

  • Discount to intrinsic value como underwriting criterion
  • Hard work of researching high-quality companies markets may be overlooking
  • Active management como driver de better-than-market returns em valuations elevadas

Posições

COOP neutral conv. top manter
Mr. Cooper Group
Cyclical

Mortgage servicing company. Shares subiram com o fecho da aquisição pela Rocket Companies a concluir-se no fim do trimestre. Investor sentiment foi também impulsionado pelo recent rate cut do Fed, que deverá dar boost a housing e refinancing demand no período seguinte. Combinação de catalyst de evento (M&A) e tailwind macro (rate cuts) drove outperformance no T3.

Shares of mortgage servicing company Mr. Cooper Group rose as its acquisition by Rocket Companies closed as the quarter concluded.

"Acções da mortgage servicing company Mr. Cooper Group subiram com o fecho da aquisição pela Rocket Companies a concluir-se no fim do trimestre."

HII neutral conv. top manter
Huntington Ingalls Industries
Cyclical

US Department of Defense (DoD) and Navy supplier. Está a ver early signs of progress dos seus recent efforts to improve employee attrition. Best positioned defense company para meet DoD's need to prepare for a potential conflict in the Pacific — strong demand for the next five-plus years. À medida que recent labor issues abate, margins should improve over time.

We continue to believe Huntington Ingalls is one of the best positioned defense companies to meet the DOD's need to prepare for a potential conflict in the Pacific — which should ensure strong demand for the next five-plus years.

"Continuamos a acreditar que Huntington Ingalls é uma das best positioned defense companies para meet the DOD's need to prepare for a potential conflict in the Pacific — which should ensure strong demand for the next five-plus years."

CMPR neutral conv. core manter
Cimpress
Stalwart

Custom printing services provider. Management team continua a impressionar com ownership mindset, long-term focus e strong alignment with shareholders — evidenced recentemente por intermediate-term goals para solid revenue and profits growth. Tese ancorada em qualidade de capital allocation e alignment.

Custom printing services provider Cimpress’s management team continues to impress us with its ownership mindset, long-term focus and strong alignment with shareholders.

"Management team da custom printing services provider Cimpress continua a impressionar-nos com o seu ownership mindset, long-term focus e strong alignment with shareholders."

RRR neutral conv. core manter
Red Rock Resorts
Stalwart

Casino operator controlling over half the Las Vegas locals market. Continua a beneficiar de broad fundamental strength que está a underpinning steady and stable growth. Posicionamento dominante num mercado defensivo (locals, não Strip) com pricing power estrutural.

Red Rock Resorts, a casino operator controlling over half the Las Vegas locals market, continues to benefit from broad fundamental strength which is underpinning steady and stable growth.

"Red Rock Resorts, casino operator que controla mais de metade do Las Vegas locals market, continua a beneficiar de broad fundamental strength que está a underpinning steady and stable growth."

COHR neutral conv. core manter
Coherent
Cyclical

Global leader em materials, networking and lasers para mercados industrial, communications, electronics and instrumentation. Beneficia de strong demand para os seus data center-related products, especialmente optical transceivers. Exposição estrutural ao buildout de AI infrastructure via optical networking pull.

Coherent, a global leader in materials, networking and lasers for the industrial, communications, electronics and instrumentation markets, is benefiting from strong demand for its data center-related products, especially its optical transceivers.

"Coherent, global leader em materials, networking and lasers para mercados industrial, communications, electronics and instrumentation, beneficia de strong demand para os seus data center-related products, especialmente os seus optical transceivers."

AIG neutral conv. core manter
American International Group
Cyclical

Property and casualty insurance company. Underperformou em sympathy com many industry peers à medida que o benefit of pricing in excess of loss costs que P&C insurers enjoyed nos últimos anos is waning, weighing no grupo nos meses recentes. Headwind cíclico em pricing power que afecta o sector de forma ampla.

The benefit of pricing in excess of loss costs that property and casualty insurers have enjoyed the past several years is waning and has weighed on the group in recent months.

"O benefit of pricing in excess of loss costs que property and casualty insurers enjoyed the past several years is waning e has weighed on the group in recent months."

KMX neutral conv. core manter
CarMax
Turnaround

Used car dealer. Viu meaningful slowdown em used retail vehicle sales e higher credit-loss provisions no captive financing arm. Consumidores likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, levando a industry lull recente. Combinado com uncertain consumer sentiment e heightened competition. Gestores acreditam que CarMax remains capable of taking share em mercado fragmented over the longer term e mantêm confidence no management team, focused em finding efficiencies para enable spending more em consumer-facing initiatives.

We believe consumers likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, leading to a recent industry lull.

"Acreditamos que consumidores likely pulled forward vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs, levando a uma recent industry lull."

CRM neutral conv. core manter
Salesforce
Stalwart

Customer relationship management (CRM) software company. Parece estar a enfrentar higher customer attrition rates, fuelling existing investor concerns sobre como IA pode disrupt o business da empresa. Tese sob pressão de risco de disrupção AI vs incumbency e moat existente.

Customer relationship management (CRM) software company Salesforce seems to be facing higher customer attrition rates, fueling investors' existing concerns about how AI may disrupt the company's business.

"Customer relationship management (CRM) software company Salesforce parece estar a enfrentar higher customer attrition rates, fuelling existing concerns dos investidores sobre como AI may disrupt the company's business."

AR neutral conv. core manter
Antero Resources
Cyclical

Gas-focused exploration and production company. Shares foram pressionadas against the backdrop of normal seasonally lower natural gas prices durante os meses de Verão. A empresa anunciou novo CEO em Agosto, contribuindo provavelmente para heightened uncertainty dado o role que o outgoing CEO desempenhou shaping Antero durante o seu tenure.

Shares of Antero Resources, a gas-focused exploration and production company, were pressured against the backdrop of normal seasonally lower natural gas prices during the summer months.

"Acções da Antero Resources, gas-focused exploration and production company, foram pressionadas against the backdrop of normal seasonally lower natural gas prices durante os meses de Verão."

SBAC neutral conv. core manter
SBA Communications
Slow Grower

Leading owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure. Continua a ver slow 5G deployment seguindo o initial build-out. Tese estrutural inalterada mas growth temporariamente pressionada pela pausa no ciclo de capex dos operadores wireless pós-build-out 5G inicial.

SBA Communications, a leading owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, continues to see slow 5G deployment following its initial build-out.

"SBA Communications, leading owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, continua a ver slow 5G deployment seguindo o seu initial build-out."

CL bullish conv. core nova posição
Colgate-Palmolive
Stalwart

Market leader em várias categorias across attractive end markets, como household goods, personal care e pet nutrition. As leading positions combinadas com a everyday-use nature dos seus products should benefit Colgate moving forward. Recent concerns em torno de consumer weakness e inventory destocking pressionaram o share price e permitiram iniciar posição.

Colgate-Palmolive is the market leader in several categories across attractive end markets, such as household goods, personal care and pet nutrition.

"Colgate-Palmolive é o market leader em várias categorias across attractive end markets, como household goods, personal care e pet nutrition."

BRK.B bullish conv. core nova posição
Berkshire Hathaway
Stalwart

Diversified holding company. Gerou strong results no seu portfolio of operating subsidiaries. Construiu significant cash position que provides stability e positive optionality no event de valuations altas para empresas públicas e privadas regressarem a níveis mais normais e permitir adquirir new businesses. Capitalizámos no announced retirement do Warren Buffett no fim de 2025 que pressed shares para adicionar a posição ao portfolio.

We capitalized on Warren Buffett's announced retirement at the end of 2025, which pressured shares, to add the position to the portfolio.

"Capitalizámos no announced retirement do Warren Buffett no fim de 2025, que pressed shares, para adicionar a posição ao portfolio."

ZTS bullish conv. core nova posição
Zoetis
Stalwart

Leader em animal health market com leading products para companion animals (pets) e livestock. Broad portfolio com multiple growth drivers e strong pipeline para address several undertreated pet conditions. Concerns sobre um dos seus arthritis drugs used em dogs pressed share price recentemente, permitindo introduzir posição abaixo do estimate of intrinsic value.

Zoetis is a leader in the animal health market with leading products for companion animals (pets) and livestock.

"Zoetis é um leader em animal health market com leading products para companion animals (pets) e livestock."

ADBE bullish conv. core nova posição
Adobe
Stalwart

Largest provider de creative content software no mercado, com sizeable moat. Design professionals em todas as verticals relyam heavily no robust suite de tools. Possui também direct customer engagement software e a ubiquitous Adobe Acrobat platform — dois assets que gestores acreditam underappreciated pelo mercado. Apesar de valid concerns sobre AI disruption, solution breadth, diversification, incumbency, strong positioning upmarket e ongoing willingness to innovate posicionam Adobe para weather shifts no competitive environment.

Adobe is the market's largest provider of creative content software and enjoys a sizeable moat.

"Adobe é o largest provider de creative content software do mercado e enjoys a sizeable moat."

PFE bearish conv. starter sair
Pfizer
Stalwart

Biopharmaceutical company. Posição saída durante o trimestre para funding compras de Colgate-Palmolive, Berkshire Hathaway, Zoetis e Adobe — deploy of capital para more compelling opportunities elsewhere.

We funded these purchases in part with the proceeds from the sale of biopharmaceutical company Pfizer and athletic apparel manufacturer lululemon in order to deploy our capital to more compelling opportunities elsewhere.

"Financiámos estas compras em parte com proceeds from the sale of biopharmaceutical company Pfizer e athletic apparel manufacturer lululemon para deploy capital to more compelling opportunities elsewhere."

LULU bearish conv. starter sair
lululemon athletica
Turnaround

Athletic apparel manufacturer. Posição saída durante o trimestre para funding compras de Colgate-Palmolive, Berkshire Hathaway, Zoetis e Adobe — deploy of capital para more compelling opportunities elsewhere. Tariff e merchandise reset overhangs pesaram contra alternativas no mercado.

We funded these purchases in part with the proceeds from the sale of biopharmaceutical company Pfizer and athletic apparel manufacturer lululemon in order to deploy our capital to more compelling opportunities elsewhere.

"Financiámos estas compras em parte com proceeds from the sale of biopharmaceutical company Pfizer e athletic apparel manufacturer lululemon para deploy capital to more compelling opportunities elsewhere."

Citações

Amid what could potentially be a bubble (only hindsight will tell), sentiment around AI is driving remarkable equity market returns year to date.

"Em meio do que poderá potencialmente ser uma bolha (só hindsight dirá), sentiment em torno de IA está a impulsionar remarkable equity market returns year to date."

Diamond Hill Select Fund · Q3 2025

AI seems to be all many investors care about.

"IA parece ser tudo o que muitos investidores se preocupam."

Diamond Hill Select Fund · Q3 2025

we are not contrarian for its own sake; rather, we find it hard to justify the valuations of some top-performing companies when much remains to be seen about whether — and how — AI will impact businesses in the future.

"não somos contrarian for its own sake; rather, achamos hard to justify as valuations de algumas top-performing companies quando much remains to be seen about whether — and how — AI will impact businesses in the future."

Diamond Hill Select Fund · Q3 2025

Equity markets are back to above-average valuation levels, making it difficult to expect returns that match historical averages over the next five years.

"Equity markets estão de volta a above-average valuation levels, dificultando expectar retornos que match historical averages over the next five years."

Diamond Hill Select Fund · Q3 2025

investors who do the hard work of researching and identifying high-quality companies the markets may be entirely overlooking can ultimately generate attractive long-term returns.

"investidores que fazem o hard work of researching and identifying high-quality companies que os mercados possam estar entirely overlooking podem ultimately gerar attractive long-term returns."

Diamond Hill Select Fund · Q3 2025

Performance

Retornos

T3 2025 — Class I (DHLTX)
+4,98%
YTD
+8,82%
Desde início
+9,91%
Base
net
CAGR desde inception
+9,91%

Benchmark

Russell 3000 Index

Período
+8,18%
YTD
+14,40%

Benchmarks alternativos

  • Russell 3000 Value Index · +5,63% (YTD +11,49%) — Comparativo all-cap value — referenciado como benchmark de estilo coerente com o mandato value do fundo

Contribuidores

Top contributors: COOP, HII, CMPR, RRR, COHR
Top detractors: AIG, KMX, CRM, AR, SBAC

Attribution

Portfolio trailed o Russell 3000 Index no T3. Fraqueza relativa parcialmente atribuída à exposição em information technology — underweight ao sector top-performing do índice e holdings que, embora positivas, ficaram atrás de benchmark peers. Consumer discretionary holdings também posaram headwind relativo. Industrials e financials holdings foram fontes de força relativa. Sectorialmente o Russell 3000 foi liderado por tecnologia (+13%) e serviços de comunicação (+12%), com consumer staples (-2,5%) como único sector negativo. Top contributors individuais: Mr. Cooper Group, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Cimpress, Red Rock Resorts e Coherent. Top detractors: American International Group, CarMax, Salesforce, Antero Resources e SBA Communications.

Portfólio

Sector tilts

  • Tecnologia · underweight (modest) — Underweight ao sector top-performing do Russell 3000 no T3; holdings positivas mas atrás de benchmark peers no rally AI-driven; Salesforce pressionada por concerns sobre AI disruption ao seu core CRM business
  • Consumo discric. · neutral — Headwind relativo via CarMax (pull-forward de tariffs) e SBA Communications (slow 5G deployment); Red Rock Resorts como top contributor com fundamental strength no Las Vegas locals market
  • Industriais · overweight (modest) — Fonte de força relativa; Huntington Ingalls Industries como top contributor via DoD demand para a próxima década de potential Pacific conflict preparation
  • Financeiras · overweight (modest) — Fonte de força relativa apesar de AIG ser bottom contributor; Mr. Cooper Group impulsionado pelo fecho da aquisição pela Rocket Companies e perspectiva de rate cuts