Upslope Capital Management, LLC

Q3 2025 · 1500 palavras · 14 Out 2025 · Full letter

Resumo editorial

A Upslope Capital fechou o T3 2025 com +8,8% líquido e +12,5% YTD, contra +5,5%/+5,5% do S&P Midcap 400 ETF (MDY) e +3,8%/+8,3% do HFRX Equity Hedge Index. George Livadas dedicou a carta a um diagnóstico de market conditions — white flags: valuations very extended, AI investment boom very circular, shorting near impossible. Três fontes equitativas de retorno no long side: AI hedges (GOOGL, INTC), Intermex take-out (Western Union 60% premium) e core defensive longs. Adicionou healthcare basket (STERIS, West Pharmaceutical, Bio-Rad) e Korea Defense Industry ETF (KDEF) como full position. Saiu de Evercore por full valuation. Average net long T3 em 46%; gross/net exposure em 151%/31% no fim do trimestre.

Stance macro

Risk Risk-off Tilt Defensivos sobrepeso

Livadas articula leitura cautelosa explícita: perspetiva para equity markets appears asymmetrically negative over the medium-term. Average net long Q3 em 46% mas portfolio contém larger than usual amount of exposure to defensive, quality longs and high-beta shorts. Diagnóstico estrutural — white flags: valuations very extended, AI investment boom very circular, profiting from longs too easy (darts > analysis), shorting fraudy speculative stocks nearly impossible. Closing thoughts: Upslope positioned to benefit from eventual snapback em retorno relativo de durable, high-quality businesses. Markets about as stretched em favor of questionable, speculative businesses as anytime em 20+ year career do PM.

Temas

Livadas dedica a secção MARKET CONDITIONS — WHITE FLAGS a diagnóstico estrutural: AI investment boom very circular, profiting from longs so easy that throwing darts is more effective than sober analysis, short-selling especially of fraudy/speculative stocks near impossible. Perspetiva asymmetrically negative over medium-term. Reconhece que Upslope monetizou esta dynamic via LEAPS em GOOGL e INTC (AI hedges) com retorno gross combinado de +555 bps no T3 — protection do short book contra acceleration do AI bubble.

  • White flags: valuations extended, AI boom circular, shorting near impossible
  • GOOGL e INTC LEAPS como AI hedges para proteger short book
  • Perspetiva asymmetrically negative no medium-term

KDEF promovido a full position no T3 (initiated end of Q2). Tese: elevated/rising geopolitical tensions globalmente e em Asia-Pacific devem drive sustained defense investment for years; Korean defense industry com significant relative cost advantages vs US/Eur peers, NATO-compatible; potencial de capture global share à medida que NATO allies become responsible for funding increasing burden; governance reforms pro-shareholder em Korea; valuations reasonable absolute e relative. Top 3 holdings: Hanwha Aerospace (17%), Hyundai Rotem (13%), HJ Shipbuilding (9%). TDY mantida (positively exposed to reshoring e rising defense spending); CHG-LON mantida em Tactical com tese inalterada (UK niche defense — undemanding valuation, accelerating sector tailwinds, clean balance sheet).

  • KDEF — Korea defense beneficiária de NATO funding shift e Asia-Pacific tensions
  • Korean industry: cost advantage vs US/Eur + governance reforms
  • TDY e CHG-LON mantidas — exposure defense estrutural cross-geography

Três healthcare longs adicionadas no T3 (STE, WST, BIO), generally sized smaller than typical longs, com expectativa de pare down to one or two more concentrated bets ao longo do tempo. Rationale três-fold: (i) extraordinary opportunities — sector com 25-year low S&P 500 weight, bottom decile multiples, heavy outflows, valuations e fundamentals depressed; (ii) added diversification permite larger aggregate exposure e endurance de drawdowns individuais; (iii) healthcare businesses poderão ser large beneficiários de AI advancements not baked into valuations/estimates. BIO especialmente atractivo: tax-affected SRT stake ~50% do EV, implied valuation 9x 2026 EBITDA core business. STE a 22x 2026 EPS com balance sheet 1x net leverage. WST a 23x 2026 EBITDA com tailwinds GLP-1 + reshoring.

  • Healthcare sector dislocation: 25-year low S&P weight, depressed multiples
  • BIO: SRT stake ~50% EV implica core business a 9x 2026 EBITDA
  • AI tailwind opcional para healthcare not baked into estimates

Portfolio com diversification estrutural significativa fora dos EUA — geo exposure US 60%, W. Europe 20%, Northern Europe 6%, RoW 13%, Canada 1% (total ~40% non-US). Posições core como DPLM-LON (UK specialty distributor — essential consumables em life sciences/seals/ aerospace), 8697-JP (Japan Exchange — beneficiária reform e global volatility), e Tactical SMIN-LON (UK industrial em activist transformation), SAND-SE (Swedish mining/cutting equipment dominante em gold miners), HOLN-SWX (Swiss cement com US spin-off recente executado), CHG-LON (UK defense). Padrão estrutural: preferência por European/Japanese industrials defensivos com valuations reasonable e operational discipline (activist transformations, fortress balance sheets, M&A disciplinada).

  • DPLM-LON, 8697-JP — core europeias/japonesa de qualidade
  • SAND-SE — dominant em mining equipment + gold exposure
  • SMIN-LON — activist-driven transformation UK
  • ~40% non-US exposure estrutural

Closing thoughts articulam tese central: Upslope is positioned to benefit from an eventual snapback em retorno relativo de durable, high-quality businesses. When such a rebound will occur is anyone's guess. But underneath the surface markets are about as stretched in favor of questionable, speculative businesses as anytime em 20+ year career do PM. Posicionamento defensivo articulado: portfolio com larger than usual exposure to defensive, quality longs and high-beta shorts; net long exposure modest; downside protection significant. Defensive-leaning longs anticipated to be biggest driver of returns going forward — boring stocks com solid fundamentals e reasonable valuations deverão handily outperform when markets sober up.

  • Quality businesses dislocated — snapback eventual
  • Defensive longs como biggest driver going forward
  • Markets stretched em favor of speculative — anytime em 20+ year career

Posições

CME neutral conv. core manter
CME Group
Mega Stalwart

Leading operator of global derivatives exchanges focado em rates, commodities, equities e FX. Attractive durable business que deve continuar a beneficiar de global macro volatility. Competitive threat from upstart exchange continues to dissipate.

HSY neutral conv. core manter
Hershey Company
Large Stalwart

Dominant North American chocolate and salty snack business facing headline pressures por recent surge em cocoa prices e GLP-1 worries. Likely overblown fears permitiram entry price atractivo em advance de potential share gains e harvesting de recently elevated investment spend.

TDY neutral conv. core manter
Teledyne Technologies
Large Stalwart

Producer de specialty electronics, components e technologies primariamente focado em imaging sensors e cameras. Dinged pela transformative 2021 FLIR acquisition, expectations e valuation foram reset, balance sheet is clean, e a company is positively exposed to reshoring trends e rising defense spending.

STE bullish conv. core nova posição
STERIS plc
Mid Stalwart

Leader em infection prevention, sterilization e procedural solutions para healthcare providers, hospitals, pharmaceutical e bioprocess customers. Apesar de modelo defensivo (~75% sales de service e consumables), STE historicamente entregou high single-digit organic growth e foi active em M&A. Valuation reasonable a 22x 2026 EPS (em linha com medium-term history) e balance sheet a 1x net leverage — opportunity for capital deployment. Tailwinds de aging global population e continued healthcare innovation.

8697-JP neutral conv. core manter
Japan Exchange Group
Mid Stalwart

Largest exchange operator em Japan com exposure a equities, derivatives e information services. Key driver e beneficiary de ongoing efforts to reform Japanese equity market structure e corporate governance standards — bem como de ongoing global market volatility.

DPLM-LON neutral conv. core manter
Diploma plc
Mid Stalwart

UK-based specialty distributor focado em essential consumable products em life sciences, seals (machinery) e controls (aerospace wiring/ harnesses). Unique model e conservative M&A strategy historicamente permitiram attractive free cash flow growth through the cycle.

HOLN-SWX neutral conv. média manter
Holcim Ltd
Large Cyclical

Switzerland-based global cement, aggregates e building materials company. Anticipated executed spin-off de U.S. operations deverá continuar a unlock shareholder value; European operations deverão perform well à medida que war in Ukraine eventually winds down.

SAND-SE neutral conv. média manter
Sandvik AB
Large Cyclical

Sweden-based provider de mining, metal-cutting e other industrial equipment and tools. Dominant share em mining equipment e outsized exposure a gold miners, combinado com modest valuation e elevated gold prices fazem por perspetiva atractiva.

WST bullish conv. média nova posição
West Pharmaceutical Services
Mid Stalwart

Leading producer de packaging e components para injectable drug delivery devices (seals, elastomer stoppers, syringe components). Larger e mais dominant competitor da Aptar's Pharma. Em adição a tailwinds de growing GLP-1 usage (small minority of sales), WST deverá beneficiar de continued advancements em drug development e push para reshore drug manufacturing. Valuation re-rated para ~23x 2026 EBITDA — reasonable dada solid consistent growth e deep regulatory-driven competitive advantages.

KDEF bullish conv. média nova posição
PLUS Korea Defense Industry ETF
Mid Cyclical

Concentrated ETF com exposure a Korea's leading defense e shipbuilding contractors. Top 3 holdings: Hanwha Aerospace (17%), Hyundai Rotem (13%), HJ Shipbuilding (9%). Tese: elevated/rising geopolitical tensions Asia-Pacific drive sustained defense investment for years; Korean industry com significant cost advantages vs US/Eur peers, cheaper/faster, NATO-compatible; potencial de capture global share à medida que NATO allies funding burden shifts; Korean governance reforms pro-shareholder em curso; valuations reasonable absolute e relative.

SMIN-LON neutral conv. média manter
Smiths Group plc
Mid Turnaround

Historicamente sleepy UK-based industrial conglomerate focado em specialty industrial niches e security/detection. Recent activist pressure levou management a commit a transforming the business shedding non-core units e focando nos strongest legacy segments.

BIO bullish conv. média nova posição
Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc.
Mid Turnaround

Global producer de clinical diagnostic e life sciences products, market leader em maioria dos products. ~70% sales recurring/ consumable. Importantly, BIO owns >35% de Germany-listed Sartorius (SRT-DE) — global leader em bioprocessing. Tax-affected, SRT stake representa quase 50% do EV de BIO, implicando valuation well-below market para core operating business — 9x 2026 EBITDA accounting for SRT stake. Both BIO e SRT viram sharp de-ratings em COVID-era hangovers; entry particularmente atractivo dada prospect de troughing fundamentals.

MKTX neutral conv. média manter
MarketAxess Holdings
Mid Turnaround -1,9% contrib.

Challenged member do fixed income/credit "exchange" duopoly. Dado o macro/geopolitical backdrop e depressed valuation, company aparenta likely to stabilize market share (or better) no near-term e/ou ser acquired por large exchange no medium-term.

FCN neutral conv. média manter
FTI Consulting
Mid Cyclical

Boutique consulting e advisory firm com deep experience em restructuring, dispute/conflict advisory e other practices. Challenges em non-core segment depressed expectations para shares apesar de environment que deve ultimately drive strong e rising demand.

CHG-LON neutral conv. média manter
Chemring Group plc
Small Cyclical

Niche UK-based defense contractor focado em defensive flares, specialty explosives e cyber warfare. Setup para shares inclui undemanding valuation, accelerating sector tailwinds, clean balance sheet, strategic assets e active buyback.

GOOGL bearish conv. starter reduzir
Alphabet Inc.
Mega Stalwart +2,9% contrib.

LEAPS (long-term call options) implemented earlier in 2025 para proteger short book de acceleration do AI bubble. Alphabet perceived como likely beneficiary de AI bubble e relatively out of favor at entry. Hedge altamente eficaz no T3 (+290 bps gross) e offset most of Fund's losses from shorts. Hoje effectively reduced para Starter size — Livadas explícito: "I am not about to become a big tech-focused investor."

I won't hesitate to be creative in mitigating portfolio risks, I am not about to become a big tech-focused investor.

"Não hesitarei em ser criativo a mitigar portfolio risks, mas não estou prestes a tornar-me um big tech-focused investor."

INTC bearish conv. starter reduzir
Intel Corp.
Mega Turnaround +2,6% contrib.

LEAPS (long-term call options) implemented earlier in 2025 para proteger short book de acceleration do AI bubble. Intel perceived como likely beneficiary de AI bubble e relatively out of favor at entry. Hedge altamente eficaz no T3 (+265 bps gross). Hoje effectively reduced para Starter size — Livadas não pretende tornar-se big tech-focused investor.

IMXI bearish conv. starter reduzir
International Money Express
Micro Asset Play +5,3% contrib.

Remittance payment provider. Upslope tracking IMXI for several quarters com small Starter position. Late July, Livadas observou company clearly late announcing Q2 resultados date — signal de sale or fraud. Dada IMXI history (share price collapse, strategic discussion pressure), suspeitou take-out. Purchased call options betting em take-out near-term limiting downside. Em 10 Agosto, Western Union anunciou aquisição a 60% premium. Most da position sold shortly thereafter — residual mantida no portfolio snapshot.

EVR bearish conv. média sair
Evercore Inc.
Cyclical

Leading independent M&A advisor. Saída do Fund no trimestre devida a full valuation e better opportunities for capital. Since inception da Upslope long/short strategy em 2016, Evercore (held multiple times) foi the largest individual contributor ao desempenho.

Citações

The AI investment boom has become _very_ circular; everyone knows this, few defend it

"O AI investment boom tornou-se very circular; toda a gente sabe disto, poucos o defendem"

Upslope Capital Management, LLC · Q3 2025

Profiting from longs has become _so_ easy that throwing darts is more effective than sober analysis

"Lucrar com longs tornou-se so easy that throwing darts é more effective do que sober analysis"

Upslope Capital Management, LLC · Q3 2025

Extraordinary opportunities seem to exist in the sector today.

"Extraordinary opportunities seem to exist no sector hoje."

Upslope Capital Management, LLC · Q3 2025

Elevated and rising geopolitical tensions globally and in Asia-Pacific should drive sustained defense investment for years.

"Elevated and rising geopolitical tensions globalmente e em Asia-Pacific devem drive sustained defense investment for years."

Upslope Capital Management, LLC · Q3 2025

underneath the surface markets are about as stretched in favor of questionable, speculative (being polite) businesses as anytime I’ve seen in my 20+ year career

"underneath the surface os markets estão about as stretched em favor de questionable, speculative (being polite) businesses como em qualquer momento que tenha visto na minha 20+ year career"

Upslope Capital Management, LLC · Q3 2025

Performance

Retornos

T3 2025 (líquido de fees)
+8,80%
YTD
+12,50%
Desde início
+10,70%
Base
net
CAGR desde inception
+10,70%

Benchmark

S&P Midcap 400 ETF (MDY)

Período
+5,50%
YTD
+5,50%

Benchmarks alternativos

  • HFRX Equity Hedge Index · +3,80% (YTD +8,30%) — comparador peer group long/short

Track record anual

Período Fundo Benchmark
2025 +12,50% +5,50%
2024 +9,40% +13,60%
2023 +12,40% +16,10%
2022 +6,50% -13,30%
2021 +4,20% +24,60%
2020 +15,10% +13,50%
2019 +18,90% +25,80%
2018 +4,60% -11,30%
2017 +16,20% +15,90%
since inception (anualizado) +10,70% +9,80%

Contribuidores

Top contributors: IMXI, GOOGL, INTC
Top detractors: MKTX

Attribution

Top contributors do trimestre (gross): Intermex long (+535 bps — Western Union take-out a 60% premium), Alphabet long (+290 bps — AI hedge LEAP), Intel long (+265 bps — AI hedge LEAP), totalizando +1.750 bps reportados. Top detractors: MarketAxess long (-195 bps), Index Hedge short (-130 bps), Technology Co short (-120 bps), totalizando -665 bps reportados. Retorno líquido do período: +8,8%; YTD 2025: +12,5%. Q3 foi weird: three roughly equal sources of long returns — AI hedges, Intermex take-out e core defensive-leaning longs.

Portfólio

Net exposure
31,0%