JLL neutral conv. top manter Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated
Large Fast Grower +0,9% contrib.
Leading commercial real estate services company com "beat and
raise" no Q3 e broad-based strength em todos os segmentos.
Gestora projecta EPS growth mid- to high teens nos próximos
anos via secular tailwinds: outsourcing de CRE,
institucionalização do mercado, e oportunidades de market share
gain num mercado highly fragmented. Trading a <17x next year
lucros vs 22x closest peer para comparable growth — discount
injustificado dado o setup de rebound em CRE sales e leasing.
WELL neutral conv. top manter Welltower Inc.
Mega Fast Grower +0,3% contrib.
Senior housing-focused REIT que a gestora prevê crescer lucros
15-20% anualmente nos próximos anos. Beneficiário primário de
aging demographics (80+ population dos fastest-growing aging
groups segundo OECD/US Census) e supply muted que sustenta
favorable growth durante several anos. Combinação rara de
cyclical + secular growth com supply backdrop favorável.
BN neutral conv. top manter Brookfield Corporation
Mega Stalwart
Leading real estate-focused alternative asset manager com
opportunity para increase market share num pie crescente,
suportado por impressive investment track record e global scale
advantages. Posicionado para beneficiar de secular growth
opportunity para alternative assets — track record de retornos
atractivos com perceived lower volatility vs outras options.
PLD neutral conv. core manter Prologis, Inc.
Mega Stalwart +0,4% contrib.
Best-in-class industrial REIT com strong Q3 financial report e
robust multi-year business panorama. Leasing activity stabilized
e a acelerar como antecipado. In-place rents generally >20%
abaixo de market e 40% abaixo de replacement rents (embedded
growth potential significativo). Demand drivers seculares
(e-commerce, supply chain logistics, inventory safety stock,
nearshoring/onshoring), growing pipeline de lucrative data
center development opportunities. Compelling appreciation
potential dado strong runway de cash flow e crescimento de
lucros e undemanding valuation.
TOL neutral conv. core manter Toll Brothers, Inc.
Large Cyclical
Luxury homebuilder #1 do país, liderado por "fabulous CEO" Doug
Yearley com tremendous runway de crescimento via vantagens
competitivas vs privados. Beneficiário core da tese de housing
shortage estrutural e potencial rebound bipartisan-supported. EPS
growth potencial >10% anual quando housing market reverter.
GDS neutral conv. core manter GDS Holdings Limited
Fast Grower
Leading developer e operator de data centers na China e fast
growing fora da Ásia. Detrator no T4 após strong 9M com
investors a digerir calendário de step-up em new business
bookings e capital investment requerido. Long-term bullish:
undemanding valuation, blue-chip customer base, valuable
capacity em tier-1 markets, embedded value em international
business via private capital raises de investors highly
regarded. AI wave on the cusp of step-change e chip supply
loosening em China.
SKY bullish conv. starter nova posição Champion Homes, Inc.
Small Turnaround
Segundo maior produtor de factory-built housing nos EUA (~20-25%
market share, trailing apenas Clayton/Berkshire). Casa média
$93k vs $400k site-built — solução-chave para affordability.
Industry produz 100k/ano vs long-term 200k; initiatives políticos
(chattel loan reform, HUD code changes) podem inflectir demand.
46 facilities a 60% capacity utilization permitem ramp rápido.
Valuation: 1-2 multiple points discount vs histórico e vs peer.
Net purchases T4: $55,1M (#2).
Adquirido no T4 2025
VTR bullish conv. core aumentar Ventas, Inc.
Large Stalwart
Operator de senior housing, life science e medical office
buildings. Adição ao senior housing theme suportada por robust
fundamental results, growing momentum em external growth
pipeline (>$2,5B esperado para o ano) e openness para shed
slower growth assets. Valuation atractivo dado ~10% crescimento
subjacente per share esperado, mix crescente de senior housing
operating assets (~50% cash flow), declining leverage. Top net
purchase T4: $65M (#1).
FBIN bullish conv. starter nova posição Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
Small Cyclical
Leading provider de plumbing, outdoor e security products,
servindo primariamente US new residential construction e remodel
sectors. Iniciada após sharp correction. Tese: cyclically
depressed end markets; histórico de market share gains; pricing
power demonstrado; estratégia Connected Products como growth
optionality. Top net purchases T4: $33,5M (#3).
Iniciada no T4 2025
VNO bearish conv. em observação sair Vornado Realty Trust
Cyclical
Owner e developer de premier office e street retail properties
concentradas em Nova Iorque. Saída no T4 com capital realocado
para real estate companies com superior near-term growth.
Gestora remains optimistic sobre prospects long-term de Vornado
e pode revisitar.
IRM bearish conv. em observação sair Iron Mountain Incorporated
Cyclical
Records storage management company com fast-growing data center
segment. Detrator no T4 com new bookings desapontantes na
parte de data center e short report a questionar accounting
adjustments e leverage. Gestora discorda do short report mas
harvested losses, exited position e reallocated capital para
higher conviction ideas; pode revisitar.
CSGP neutral conv. core manter CoStar Group, Inc.
Large Fast Grower
Global leader em digitização de real estate. Detrator no T4 com
receios sobre capex contínuo de Homes.com, competição de novo
formato Google ads, parceria Zillow/OpenAI, e apartments.com vs
Zillow Rentals. Em 7 de Janeiro de 2026 management endereçou
investor concerns sobre capital allocation, Homes.com spend
reductions e buybacks. Gestora vê concerns como overblown e
largely factored em share price. Commercial business sozinho
a <20x 2026 estimated cash flow é atractivo.