BN neutral conv. top manter Brookfield Corporation
Mega Stalwart +1,0% contrib.
Leading global owner/operator de real assets (real estate +
infraestrutura). Maior contribuidor T2 (+1,02bps). A $62/share,
gestão considera company worth $100/share hoje e $176 em 5
anos. Ownership stakes em 4 listed Brookfield entities (BAM,
BIP, BEP, BBU) valem $52/share no mercado — quase price da
company inteira. Market ascribe little value a non-public
investments, insurance e carried interest que gestora avalia
>$25/share net of debt. Synergies entre businesses e global
scale como advantages estruturais.
Target: $100/share hoje; $176 em 5 anos (gestão Brookfield)
WYNN neutral conv. top manter Wynn Resorts, Limited
Large Cyclical +0,5% contrib.
Pre-eminent luxury global owner/operator de integrated resorts
(Vegas, Boston, Macau). Segundo contribuidor T2 (+0,51bps).
Valuation compelling: reflecte limited growth em Vegas/Macau/
Boston e largely ignora UAE Wynn Al Marjan Island (abertura
early 2027, "most exciting new market for integrated resort
developments in decades"). Management aloca capital incremental
a share repurchases. Tilman Fertitta acumula >$1B (incluindo
$150M em Março 2025) — 12% stake e maior shareholder.
BAM neutral conv. core manter Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.
Mega Fast Grower +0,5% contrib.
Asset management arm spun-off de Brookfield Corporation
(Dezembro 2022). Terceiro contribuidor T2 (+0,45bps) com
fundraising forte em backdrop volátil e improving
margins/FRE growth. Leading global alt asset manager com ~$1T
AUM em renewable power, infraestrutura, private equity, real
estate, credit. Tax-free spin-out simplificou organização e
deu acesso a steady stream de lucros via base management
fees. Gestora argumentou prémio valuation — FRE per share
esperado a crescer em upper teens nos próximos anos.
TOL bullish conv. top aumentar Toll Brothers, Inc.
Large Cyclical +0,4% contrib.
Luxury homebuilder #1 do país. Quarto contribuidor T2
(+0,41bps) e top 4 net purchase ($28,9M). CEO Doug Yearley
sinaliza healing economy e buyers a regressar; rates
psicologicamente importantes para luxury client base com
afford-power resiliente. Beneficiário core da tese de housing
shortage estrutural com long-term tailwinds (pent-up demand,
suburban shift, aging existing stock >40 anos). EPS growth
potential double-digit quando housing market reverter para
cyclical recovery.
CBRE neutral conv. top manter CBRE Group, Inc.
Large Fast Grower +0,4% contrib.
Leading commercial real estate services company juntamente
com JLL. Quinto contribuidor T2 (+0,37bps). Beneficiário de
structural/secular tailwinds: outsourcing de CRE,
institucionalização, market share gain num mercado highly
fragmented. Gestora prevê crescimento EPS >20% anual próximos
anos. Early days de rebound em CRE sales/leasing activity.
Discounted multiple vs early cycle periods histórico.
CHDN bearish conv. em observação sair Churchill Downs Incorporated
Small Cyclical -0,3% contrib.
Acquirer/operator de entertainment assets incluindo Churchill
Downs racetrack (Kentucky Derby). Maior detrator T2
(-0,27bps) após release de resultados com weakening trends em
Virginia market e Kentucky Derby abaixo do esperado. Company
indefinitely delayed projecto Kentucky Derby expansion sem
clarity em pivot para buybacks. Virginia market e regional
gaming portfolio podem manter pressure; growth projects
ramping slowly e leverage remains high. Gestora exited.
PLD neutral conv. core manter Prologis, Inc.
Mega Stalwart -0,2% contrib.
Best-in-class industrial REIT. Segundo detrator T2 (-0,22bps)
por slower leasing com companies a pausar decisions awaiting
clarity em tariffs/trade policies. Gestora hosted CEO Hamid
Moghadam: high-quality portfolio, unmatched global platform,
scale/data advantages, exceptional management. Optimista em
multi-year prospects: compelling demand/supply/rent growth,
embedded growth de in-place rents ~30% abaixo mercado,
secular tailwinds (e-commerce, nearshoring, safety stock).
Data center foray como accretive growth source.
IRT neutral conv. core manter Independence Realty Trust, Inc.
Small Cyclical -0,2% contrib.
Apartment REIT com 33.000 units catering a lower-income
demographic. Terceiro detrator T2 (-0,20bps) por tariff
impact concerns em lower income consumer, softer new-lease
pricing power e mixed reception a select acquisitions.
Gestora mantém posição com tese de return prospects
attractive: discounted public valuation vs private market
transactions e overlapping-market peers, value-add program
com superior growth vs peers, abating supply deliveries que
deve enhance pricing power, superior management team.
ABNB bullish conv. starter nova posição Airbnb, Inc.
Mega Fast Grower
Largest technology-enabled hospitality platform global com 8
milhões de listings e 5 milhões de hosts em 220 países.
Iniciada T2 (#1 top net purchase $40,6M) ao aproveitar
"indiscriminate sell-off" de Abril a valuations compelling.
Drivers: leading share em alternative accommodations + scale;
90% direct traffic = lower CAC; strong value proposition para
guests e hosts; unique two-sided marketplace com user reviews;
embedded free call options em new experiences e services.
Iniciada no T2 2025
BXP bullish conv. starter nova posição BXP, Inc.
Large Turnaround
Blue-chip office REIT (ex-Boston Properties) com portfolio
de premier office em coastal US (Boston, NYC, SF, DC, LA,
Seattle). Iniciada T2 (#2 top net purchase $32,5M). Tese:
portfolio em barriers-to-entry markets; flight to quality;
growth inflection 2026 East / 2027 West; FFO mid-single
growth via occupancy 87%→92%. A $68/share, 7,6% implied cap
rate vs private market 5-6%.
Iniciada no T2 2025 · Target: Implied 7,6% cap rate vs 5-6% private market — significant re-rating runway
EQIX bullish conv. core aumentar Equinix, Inc.
Mega Fast Grower -0,1% contrib.
Premier global operator de 270 colocation data centers em 36
países. Reforço T2 (#3 top net purchase $30,4M). Quinto
detrator T2 (-0,15bps) por Investor Day capex incremental que
deprime cash flow per share growth two years out. Balance
sheet bem posicionado, sem need de external equity. Gestora
classifica em "short-term pain for long-term gain":
inter-connected ecosystem oferece premium pricing e outsized
returns on capital.
AMT bearish conv. core reduzir American Tower Corporation
Mega Stalwart
Global REIT owner de 150.000 wireless tower communication
sites com heavy emphasis em developed markets. #1 top net
sale T2 ($26,7M) — trim modesto após shares performed well
em timeline compressed; gestão de risco position sizing +
source de capital para outras ideas. Long-term optimism
intacta: secular growth em mobile data usage, 5G deployment
e network densification (com 6G a aproximar), edge computing,
IoT connected devices a impulsionar wireless bandwidth e
carrier capex.
AVB bearish conv. em observação sair AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Large Stalwart
Multi-family apartment REIT. Gestora exited T2 ($25,1M, #2
top net sale) por less favorable economics for development,
near-term dilutive portfolio reshaping e modest growth
prospects. Capital reallocated para higher-conviction
investment ideas (Airbnb, BXP, Equinix).
EXR bearish conv. em observação sair Extra Space Storage Inc.
Large Stalwart
Best-in-class self-storage REIT. Gestora exited T2 ($23,7M,
#3 top net sale). Long-term bullish em self-storage thesis
(excellent businesses, less cyclical demand, pricing power,
low capex, scale advantages) mantém-se mas near-term concern
com lock-in effect em existing homes deprimir self-storage
demand e market rents mais longo que widely believed. Current
valuation fair, not overly cheap — capital reallocated para
investments com superior return potential.