Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund

Q2 2025 · 1280 palavras · Commentary

Resumo editorial

A Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund avançou no T2 2025 (Net +2,87%) mas ficou aquém do Russell 1000 Value (+3,79%), com fraqueza relativa concentrada em financials e consumer discretionary parcialmente compensada por health care e communication services. Após o selloff de Abril desencadeado pelas tarifas “Liberation Day” de Trump, Austin Hawley e Brian Fontanella articulam que valuations regressaram a níveis acima da média histórica. Top contributors: Regal Rexnord, Texas Instruments, Walt Disney, Ferguson Enterprises e Capital One. Top detractors: CarMax, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Berkshire Hathaway e Aon. Nova posição em Adobe iniciada a desconto face ao valor intrínseco; saída de Becton Dickinson. Gestores antecipam retornos abaixo da média histórica nos próximos cinco anos.

Stance macro

Risk Risk-off

Gestores articulam postura defensiva via disciplina valuation face a equity markets que regressaram a above-average valuation levels após rebound pós-Abril. Antecipam que será challenging future returns match historical averages over the next five years. Identificam selloff de Abril como brief but compelling window — capitalizado em initiation Adobe — mas reconhecem que rebound subsequente closed o window rapidamente. Cautelosos face a signs of weakening consumer e high-single-digit corporate profit growth expectations. Backdrop macro dominado por trade upheaval, geopolítica Middle East e divergência de central banks (Fed e BoE em pause, ECB cut).

Temas

Liberation Day tariffs announcement de Trump em Abril desencadeou downturn agudo; markets subsequentemente rose relatively uniformly com bilateral deals (US-China cortou tarifas 90 dias em Maio, UK-India reached agreement, UK-EU reset post-Brexit negotiations). Progresso com China stalled após acordo inicial; nem US nem China reverteram a prior threatened tariff rates considerados exorbitant. Economic data com minimal impact em market movements vs headlines sobre winners and losers do trade upheaval. ConocoPhillips e Diamondback Energy pressionadas via macro concerns pós-tarifas.

  • US-China cortou tarifas 90 dias mas progresso stalled
  • UK-India e UK-EU bilateral deals como driver de improvement
  • Energy sector pressionado via macro concerns pós-tarifas

Geopolítica Middle East roubou headlines do trade no final do T2. Após expiração de 60-day window para Irão retornar à mesa negocial, Trump autorizou ataques militares a três sítios nucleares no país; Irão lançou missile strikes retaliatórios contra alvos Israelis e base US no Qatar (sem casualties). Ceasefire anunciado por Trump, ainda holding. Combined com OPEC unwinding production cuts mais cedo, energy sector ficou -7,6% no T2 com ConocoPhillips e Diamondback Energy ambos top detractors via combinação de macro concerns e supply increase em weaker demand environment.

  • Ataques US a três sítios nucleares no Irão em Junho
  • OPEC unwinding production cuts como supply driver
  • Energy único sector com -7,6% no T2

Investment philosophy nuclear: identificar high-quality companies trading a valuations disconnected from fundamentais subjacentes e long-term growth outlooks. Selloff de Abril criou brief but compelling window — capitalizado em initiation Adobe a attractive discount relativo a estimate of intrinsic value. Adobe é largest provider of creative content software with strong positions em marketing software e Adobe Acrobat; investidores weighed potential for AI disruption e greater competition mas gestores acreditam current valuation reflects these concerns. Financiamento via exit de Becton Dickinson em favor de oportunidades mais compelling.

  • Adobe initiation a discount face a intrinsic value
  • Becton Dickinson exited em favor de alternativas
  • Disciplina valuation amid above-average valuation levels

Investor risk-on attitude regressou post-rebound com growthier sectors no Russell 1000 Value a liderarem. Information technology +16% e industrials +13% lideraram sectorialmente. Large-cap growth +18% vs large-cap value +3,8%. Mid-cap growth +18% vs mid-cap value +5%. Big technology stocks resumed market leadership. Gestores não articulam explicitly tema bolha AI no T2 (vs T3) mas observam valuations acima da média histórica como challenge para forward returns.

  • Russell 1000 tech +16% e industrials +13% no T2
  • Large-cap growth +18% vs value +3,8% — gap de 14pp
  • Big tech resumed market leadership post-rebound

Posições

RRX neutral conv. top manter
Regal Rexnord
Cyclical

Power transmission components manufacturer. Held up well against uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Merger synergies, 80/20 growth initiative e continuous improvement efforts a driving strong margin improvement e better-than-expected organic growth. Somewhat elevated leverage poderá deixar a empresa vulnerable a further near-term macroeconomic weakness mas self-help initiatives deverão contribuir para ongoing margin improvement e organic growth faster than peers’ — não reflectido no current share price.

Power transmission components manufacturer Regal Rexnord has held up well against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Merger synergies, its 80/20 growth initiative and continuous improvement efforts are driving strong margin improvement and better-than-expected organic growth.

"Power transmission components manufacturer Regal Rexnord held up well against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Merger synergies, 80/20 growth initiative e continuous improvement efforts a driving strong margin improvement e better-than-expected organic growth."

TXN neutral conv. top manter
Texas Instruments
Cyclical

Semiconductor manufacturer. Effectively managed near-term tariff-related uncertainty via dual-flow manufacturing capability, que permite produzir same part em fabrication plants located em different geographical regions. Shares também receberam boost via improvement em investor sentiment em torno do semiconductor market.

Semiconductor manufacturer Texas Instruments has effectively managed near-term tariff-related uncertainty by capitalizing on its dual-flow manufacturing capability, which enables it to produce the same part in fabrication plants located in different geographical regions.

"Semiconductor manufacturer Texas Instruments managed effectively near-term tariff-related uncertainty via capitalizing em dual-flow manufacturing capability, que permite produzir same part em fabrication plants located em different geographical regions."

DIS neutral conv. core manter
Walt Disney
Stalwart

Diversified media and entertainment company. Beneficiou de easing macroeconomic concerns, primarily em parks division — particularly sensitive ao economic backdrop. Recovery em consumer sentiment pós-rebound de Abril como tailwind directo para parks attendance.

Diversified media and entertainment company Walt Disney benefited from easing macroeconomic concerns, primarily in its parks division, which is particularly sensitive to the economic backdrop.

"Diversified media and entertainment company Walt Disney beneficiou de easing macroeconomic concerns, primarily em parks division, que é particularly sensitive ao economic backdrop."

FERG neutral conv. core manter
Ferguson Enterprises
Stalwart

Plumbing and heating products distributor. Capitaliza em competitive advantages para scale em large projects e HVAC market. Commodity deflation, recente headwind, diminished no trimestre. Dado fragmented industry e Ferguson como high-quality distributor onde scale matters, ample room para further margin expansion.

Plumbing and heating products distributor Ferguson Enterprises is capitalizing on its competitive advantages to scale in large projects and the HVAC market.

"Plumbing and heating products distributor Ferguson Enterprises a capitalizar em competitive advantages para scale em large projects e HVAC market."

COF neutral conv. core manter
Capital One Financial
Cyclical

Credit card issuer. Beneficia de solid consumer spending no T2, com delinquency trends e credit losses a permanecerem well- controlled. Tese assenta em momentum de spending agregado e underwriting discipline durante backdrop macro incerto.

Credit card issuer Capital One is benefiting from solid consumer spending, while delinquency trends and credit losses remain well-controlled.

"Credit card issuer Capital One a beneficiar de solid consumer spending, enquanto delinquency trends e credit losses remain well-controlled."

KMX neutral conv. core manter
CarMax
Turnaround

Used car dealer. Shares declined à medida que investidores consideraram se a empresa pode sustain recent growth rates, apesar de weakness no captive financing arm. Pressão near-term contrasta com tese de longer-term share gains em mercado fragmented.

Shares of used car dealer CarMax declined as investors considered whether the company can sustain its recent growth rates, despite some weakness in its captive financing arm.

"Acções da used car dealer CarMax declined à medida que investidores consideraram se a empresa pode sustain recent growth rates, despite some weakness em captive financing arm."

COP neutral conv. core manter
ConocoPhillips
Cyclical

Oil and gas producer. Pressionada pela combinação de growing macroeconomic concerns na sequência dos anúncios de tarifas de Abril e OPEC unwinding production cuts mais cedo, potentially levando a material increase em supply num weaker demand environment, pesando em oil prices.

Shares of oil and gas producers ConocoPhillips and Diamondback Energy were pressured by the combination of growing macroeconomic concerns in the wake of April’s tariff announcements and OPEC’s announcement that it would unwind production cuts early, potentially leading to a material increase in supply in a weaker demand environment and weighing on oil prices.

"Acções de oil and gas producers ConocoPhillips e Diamondback Energy foram pressionadas pela combinação de growing macroeconomic concerns na sequência dos anúncios de tarifas de Abril e OPEC unwind production cuts early, potencialmente levando a material increase em supply num weaker demand environment."

FANG neutral conv. core manter
Diamondback Energy
Cyclical

Oil and gas producer (Permian-focused). Mesma dinâmica de ConocoPhillips: pressionada por macro concerns pós-tarifas e por OPEC unwind production cuts cedo. Material increase em supply potencial em weaker demand environment como overhang directo em oil prices.

Shares of oil and gas producers ConocoPhillips and Diamondback Energy were pressured by the combination of growing macroeconomic concerns in the wake of April’s tariff announcements and OPEC’s announcement that it would unwind production cuts early, potentially leading to a material increase in supply in a weaker demand environment and weighing on oil prices.

"Acções de oil and gas producers ConocoPhillips e Diamondback Energy foram pressionadas pela combinação de growing macroeconomic concerns na sequência dos anúncios de tarifas de Abril e OPEC unwind production cuts early, potencialmente levando a material increase em supply num weaker demand environment."

BRK.B neutral conv. core manter
Berkshire Hathaway
Stalwart

Diversified holding company. Apesar de strong quarter para a empresa, shares declined à medida que investidores weighed implications da retirement de Warren Buffett no fim do calendar year. Overhang de succession como driver near-term apesar dos fundamentais sólidos.

Despite a strong quarter for diversified holding company Berkshire Hathaway, shares declined as investors weighed the implications of Warren Buffett’s retirement at the end of the calendar year.

"Apesar de strong quarter para diversified holding company Berkshire Hathaway, shares declined à medida que investidores weighed implications da retirement de Warren Buffett no fim do calendar year."

AON neutral conv. core manter
Aon
Stalwart

Global leader em insurance brokerage e consulting. Apesar de good organic revenue growth e margin expansion, investidores aparentaram decepcionados com orientação a médio prazo da empresa, que turn pesou em share price no T2.

Aon is a global leader in insurance brokerage and consulting. Despite good organic revenue growth and margin expansion, investors appeared to be disappointed by the company’s orientação a médio prazo, which in turn weighed on the share price in Q2.

"Aon é um global leader em insurance brokerage e consulting. Apesar de good organic revenue growth e margin expansion, investidores aparentaram decepcionados com orientação a médio prazo da empresa, que turn pesou em share price no T2."

ADBE bullish conv. core nova posição
Adobe
Stalwart

Largest provider de creative content software by a wide margin, com robust suite de tools used by design professionals em vários verticals. Strong positions em marketing software e Adobe Acrobat (near-ubiquitous). Investidores weighed potential for greater competition e AI disruption mas gestores acreditam current valuation reflects these concerns, dada breadth e diversification de soluções, incumbency e ongoing AI infusion nos produtos existentes. Position initiated a attractive discount relativo ao estimate of intrinsic value.

Despite the markets’ relatively sharp bounce following April’s downward volatility, we were able to initiate a new position in Adobe at what we consider a compelling valuation.

"Apesar do markets’ relatively sharp bounce following April’s downward volatility, conseguimos iniciar uma nova posição em Adobe a what we consider a compelling valuation."

BDX bearish conv. starter sair
Becton Dickinson
Stalwart

Global medical technology company. Posição exited no T2 em favor de more compelling opportunities elsewhere — funding source parcial para initiation Adobe. Decisão de capital reallocation sem articulação explícita de tese estrutural deteriorada.

We funded this purchase in part with the proceeds from the sale of the global medical technology company, Becton Dickinson, which we exited in favor of more compelling opportunities elsewhere.

"Financiámos esta compra em parte com proceeds da venda da global medical technology company, Becton Dickinson, que saímos em favor de more compelling opportunities elsewhere."

Citações

Following a sharp downturn in April in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, markets rose relatively uniformly for the rest of the quarter.

"Após sharp downturn em Abril na sequência do anúncio de tarifas “Liberation Day” do Presidente Trump, mercados subiram relatively uniformly durante o resto do trimestre."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q2 2025

While the selloff in early Q2 created some interesting and compelling investment opportunities, it was undoubtedly a short window in which to capitalize, given the market’s sharp rebound.

"Enquanto o selloff no início do T2 criou some interesting e compelling investment opportunities, foi undoubtedly a short window in which to capitalize, dado o market’s sharp rebound."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q2 2025

we remain focused on our investment philosophy, which seeks to identify opportunities to invest in high-quality companies trading at valuations we believe are disconnected from their underlying fundamentals and longterm growth outlooks.

"permanecemos focados na nossa investment philosophy, que seeks to identify opportunities to invest em high-quality companies trading at valuations que acreditamos disconnected dos fundamentais subjacentes e long-term growth outlooks."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q2 2025

As equity markets return to above-average valuation levels, it becomes increasingly challenging to expect returns that align with historical averages over the next five years.

"À medida que equity markets return to above-average valuation levels, torna-se increasingly challenging to expect returns que align with historical averages over the next five years."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q2 2025

we capitalized on what we consider an attractive discount relative to our estimate of intrinsic value to initiate a position in Q2.

"capitalizámos em what we consider an attractive discount relativo a estimate of intrinsic value para initiate a position no T2."

Diamond Hill Large Cap Fund · Q2 2025

Performance

Retornos

T2 2025 — Net of Fees (Large Cap Composite)
+2,87%
YTD
+4,19%
Desde início
+9,12%
Base
net
CAGR desde inception
+9,12%

Benchmark

Russell 1000 Value Index

Período
+3,79%
YTD
+6,00%

Benchmarks alternativos

  • Russell 1000 Index · +11,11% (YTD +6,12%) — Comparativo large cap blend — referenciado pelo gestor como benchmark de mercado largo

Contribuidores

Top contributors: RRX, TXN, DIS, FERG, COF
Top detractors: KMX, COP, FANG, BRK.B, AON

Attribution

Portfolio avançou no T2 mas ficou modestly atrás do Russell 1000 Value. Fraqueza relativa concentrada em financial holdings — positivos em base absoluta mas atrás de benchmark peers. Consumer discretionary holdings também posou relative headwind. Inversamente, health care holdings outperformed index names, dando boost ao desempenho relativo. Communication services holdings também aditivos no trimestre. Top contributors individuais: Regal Rexnord, Texas Instruments, Walt Disney, Ferguson Enterprises e Capital One Financial. Bottom contributors: CarMax, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Berkshire Hathaway e Aon. Sectorialmente Russell 1000 Value liderado por information technology (+16%) e industrials (+13%); health care (-8,7%), energy (-7,6%) e real estate (-1,1%) únicos sectores em queda no T2.

Portfólio

Sector tilts

  • Financeiras · neutral — Financial holdings positivos em base absoluta mas atrás de benchmark peers no T2; Capital One contributor via solid consumer spending e delinquency trends controlados; Berkshire e Aon detractors via Buffett retirement e revisão de perspectivas a médio prazo
  • Consumo discric. · neutral — Consumer discretionary posou relative headwind; CarMax pressionada por sustentabilidade de growth rates e weakness no captive financing; Walt Disney top contributor via easing macro concerns nos parques
  • Saúde · overweight (modest) — Health care holdings outperformed index names; Becton Dickinson exited em favor de oportunidades mais compelling
  • Comunicações · overweight (modest) — Communication services holdings aditivos no trimestre — sector em recuperação após underperformance YTD
  • Energia · neutral — Energy sector (-7,6%) único sector negativo via macro concerns pós-tarifas e OPEC unwinding production cuts; ConocoPhillips e Diamondback ambos detractors
  • Industriais · overweight (modest) — Industrials (+13%) lideraram sectorialmente Russell 1000 Value; Regal Rexnord top contributor via merger synergies e 80/20 growth initiative; Ferguson via competitive advantages em scale e HVAC market