JLL neutral conv. top manter Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated
Large Fast Grower +1,0% contrib.
Leading commercial real estate services company com Q2
financial report robust e broad-based strength em todos os
segmentos. Gestora projecta EPS growth mid- to high teens
nos próximos anos via secular tailwinds: outsourcing de CRE,
institucionalização do mercado e oportunidades de market
share gain num mercado highly fragmented. Trading a <15x
next year estimate vs 17-18x durante prior early cycle
periods — discount injustificado dado setup de rebound em
CRE sales e leasing.
BN neutral conv. top manter Brookfield Corporation
Mega Stalwart
Leading real estate-focused alternative asset manager com
opportunity para increase market share num pie crescente,
suportado por impressive investment track record e global
scale advantages. Posicionado para beneficiar de secular
growth opportunity para alternative assets — track record de
retornos atractivos com perceived lower volatility vs
outras options.
CBRE neutral conv. top manter CBRE Group, Inc.
Large Fast Grower
Leading commercial real estate services company juntamente
com JLL deve continuar a beneficiar de structural e secular
tailwinds: outsourcing de CRE, institucionalização e
oportunidades de market share gain num mercado highly
fragmented. Gestora prevê EPS growth >20% anual próximos
anos. CEO Bob Sulentic sinaliza novo pico de lucros este
ano, apenas dois anos após o trough de 2023 — mesmo com
capital markets activity ainda abaixo dos picos anteriores.
We expect to set a new earnings peak this year just two years after the 2023 trough in the commercial real estate downturn, even though capital markets activity remains well below prior peak levels
"Esperamos atingir um novo pico de lucros este ano, apenas
dois anos após o trough de 2023 no downturn de commercial
real estate, ainda que a actividade de capital markets
permaneça bem abaixo dos picos anteriores."
TOL neutral conv. top manter Toll Brothers, Inc.
Large Cyclical +0,9% contrib.
Luxury homebuilder #1 do país. CEO Doug Yearley sinaliza
"economy starting to heal", buyers a regressar e rates
psicologicamente importantes para a luxury client base que
pode afford homes. Quarto maior contribuidor T3 (+0,92bps).
Beneficiário core da tese de housing shortage estrutural com
long-term tailwinds (pent-up demand, secular suburban shift,
aging existing stock). EPS growth potencial double-digit
quando housing market reverter para cyclical recovery.
I think the economy is starting to heal. I think the buyers are beginning to come back out.
"Acho que a economia está a começar a curar. Acho que os
buyers estão a começar a regressar."
WELL bearish conv. top reduzir Welltower Inc.
Mega Fast Grower +0,8% contrib.
Senior housing-focused REIT que gestora prevê crescer lucros
15-20% anualmente nos próximos anos. Beneficiário primário
de aging demographics e supply muted que sustenta favorable
growth durante several anos. Quinto contribuidor T3
(+0,82bps). Welltower foi top 4 net sale no T3 ($8,2M) como
gestão de risco/rebalance após forte valorização —
mantém-se top 4 holding e tese long-term intacta.
AMT neutral conv. core manter American Tower Corporation
Mega Stalwart -0,5% contrib.
Global REIT owner de 150.000 wireless tower communication
sites com heavy emphasis em developed markets. Maior
detrator T3 (-0,46bps) por slight delay em US billings
2025→2026 e preocupações com DISH/EchoStar churn após
spectrum divestiture. Gestora acredita shares attractively
valued: secular growth em mobile data, bookings activity a
melhorar, e potential para mid- a upper single-digit
organic growth de lucros com optionality em capital
allocation (buybacks, M&A) e 3,5% dividend yield.
EQIX neutral conv. core manter Equinix, Inc.
Mega Fast Grower
Leading global data center REIT beneficiário de secular
tailwinds em rising data consumption e AI workloads. Top 9
holding (3,2% NAV). Combinação de capacity expansion global
com elevated cost of build e power constraints sustenta
rent growth para data center capacity. Supply constrained
e demand explosivo formam setup atractivo.
BX bullish conv. core aumentar Blackstone Inc.
Mega Stalwart
Leading real estate-focused alternative asset manager
juntamente com Brookfield. Adicionado em T3 ($5,2M, #4 top
net purchase). Posicionado para market share gain num pie
crescente, suportado por impressive track record e global
scale advantages. Jon Gray (COO): "we know the path of
travel (for real estate)…our confidence on the ultimate
outcome (is) high." PE como "embedded put" para public REITs
descontados.
We know the path of travel (for real estate)…So I'd say our confidence on the ultimate outcome (is) high, and we're getting closer and closer to that tipping point where real estate will start to move.
"Conhecemos o caminho (para real estate)… Diria que a nossa
confiança no resultado final é elevada, e estamos cada vez
mais perto desse tipping point onde o real estate começa a
mover-se."
FND bullish conv. starter nova posição Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
Small Turnaround -0,1% contrib.
Specialty retailer e commercial flooring distributor de
hard-surface flooring iniciada após sharp correction.
Vantagens competitivas: everyday low pricing via direct
overseas sourcing; large format stores com 4.000 SKUs
(3-4x peers). Drivers: rebound em US remodel activity
(cyclically depressed), pricing power, new store openings
(257→500 by 2032), margin expansion (11%→15-17% EBITDA),
commercial push via Spartan Surfaces. Potential 20-30%+
EPS growth anual com EPS $1,80→$4,50+ long-term.
Iniciada no T3 2025
IRM bullish conv. starter nova posição Iron Mountain Incorporated
Large Fast Grower
Novo REIT position iniciada em T3 com compelling valuation
+ attractive long-term growth prospects. #1 top net purchase
($27,1M). Oferece records storage management com fast-growing
data center segment. CEO Bill Meany e CFO Barry Hytinen
sustentam expectativa de ~10% cash flow per share growth
nos próximos vários anos, materialmente acima de outros
REITs. Core records management = predictable/stable growth;
data center business com visibility a triplicar operational
capacity; asset life cycle management cresce >20% YoY.
Iniciada no T3 2025
AAON bullish conv. starter nova posição AAON, Inc.
Small Turnaround
Differentiated best-in-class provider de premium HVAC
para North American light commercial market + data center
cooling via BASX subsidiary. Iniciada após 40% decline por
overreaction a Investor Day projecções + temporary ERP
hiccup. Core HVAC (~80% sales) líder em premium semi-custom
com high-single a low-double digit organic growth vs low-mid
single digits dos peers. BASX (20%) com hyperscaler cooling
— gestora espera >40% growth anual a atingir ~40% revenue
por 2027.
Iniciada no T3 2025
CSGP bearish conv. core reduzir CoStar Group, Inc.
Large Fast Grower
Leading provider de information, analytics e marketing
services para a real estate industry. Top 1 net sale T3
($14,1M) — trim modesto após forte valorização das acções,
mantendo position significativa. Gestora long-term optimistic
sobre prospects e proptech secular tailwind via
digitalização de real estate.
VNO bearish conv. core reduzir Vornado Realty Trust
Small Cyclical
Owner e developer de premier office e street retail
properties concentradas em New York City. Trim modesto T3
($8,5M) após forte valorização das acções. Gestora
long-term optimistic e mantém posição significativa.
IRT bearish conv. em observação sair Independence Realty Trust, Inc.
Small Cyclical
Apartment REIT — gestora exited position T3 e realocou
capital para companhias com expectativa de multi-year
shareholder return prospects superiores. #2 top net sale
($12,5M).
WYNN neutral conv. core manter Wynn Resorts, Limited
Large Cyclical +1,2% contrib.
Pre-eminent luxury global owner/operator de integrated
resorts (Las Vegas, Boston, Macau). Maior contribuidor T3
(+1,20bps) com shares +37,3% após strong Q2 e
better-than-expected em Macau e Las Vegas. A $116/share,
trading a 9,3x 2026 estimated cash flow ou sum-of-parts
attractive. UAE development (Wynn Al Marjan Island, abertura
early 2027) pode valer $25/share não reflectido no preço.
Higher-end consumer position em Vegas com pricing power
isola vs peers.
CRH neutral conv. core manter CRH public limited company
Mega Stalwart +0,9% contrib.
Maior supplier de building materials (aggregates, cement,
asphalt, concrete) em North America e Europe. Terceiro
contribuidor T3 (+0,95bps) com strong Q2 e Investor Day
well-received que delineou double-digit annual growth de
lucros framework até 2030. Vertically integrated approach
(upstream + downstream + paving services + water/outdoor)
maximiza returns sobre raw material reserves. Re-rating
multiple esperado conforme US investors educate-se sobre
quality e growth profile.