Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025)

Q2 2025 · 1750 palavras · Commentary

Resumo editorial

O Baron FinTech Fund subiu 9,26% (NAV Institutional) no segundo trimestre de 2025, ficando atrás do FactSet Global FinTech Index (+13,82%) e do S&P 500 (+10,94%). Underperformance versus o Benchmark foi driven por stock selection em Information Services, Payments e Tech-Enabled Financials, num trimestre em que Challengers bateram Leaders por margem larga (+24% vs +5%). Trimestre marcado pela 'Liberation Day' tariff de Trump (rebote pós-pausa) e retoma do Magnificent Seven complex (+20%). Robinhood, MercadoLibre, Intuit, Guidewire e Interactive Brokers lideraram contributors; Fiserv, Progressive, Clearwater, Tradeweb e Intapp detraíram. Ategrity Specialty (IPO) adicionada; Schwab, CME e Alkami reforçados; Fiserv, Progressive e Accenture trimmed. Perspectivas 'rosier' com trade deals em curso e easing inflation.

Stance macro

Risk Risk-on Fed Dovish

Stance construtivo: gestor descreve panorama económico como "rosier" face há três meses, com trade deals a tomar forma, equity markets rebounded, volatility cooled, unemployment low, card payment volumes estáveis. Dovish Federal Reserve commentary após muted inflation readings sinaliza rate cuts à frente — beneficia retail brokers (HOOD, IBKR), asset managers e capital markets businesses. Riscos identificados: tariffs como wildcard contínuo apesar da pausa, AI disintermediation em data/analytics (FICO, VRSK), Mag7 dominance, e cooling em insurance pricing após "hard market" period. Magnificent Seven retomou leadership (+20%) — headwind versus broader market dado tilt para quality.

Temas

Filosofia central de Josh Saltman: investir em competitively advantaged, growing fintech companies for the long term, com universo across all market capitalizations and geographies. Quality of ideas e level of conviction determinam position size. 46 posições no Fundo (37 excluding <1%); top 10 = 40,9% NAV; top 20 = 67,8%. Mcap range $804M a $704B (median $34B, weighted avg $124B). Active share 88,0% versus Benchmark. Tilt estrutural para Leaders (70,8% NAV) vs Challengers (26,9%) — Leaders são generally larger, more established companies com stable growth rates, higher margins e moderate valuation multiples. Sublinhado no trimestre: "We construct the portfolio with an expectation of economic fluctuations and invest in companies that will thrive over a full economic cycle."

  • Tilt para Leaders versus Challengers (70,8% vs 26,9% NAV)
  • Universo cross-market-cap e cross-geography ($804M a $704B)
  • Active share 88,0% versus Benchmark

Risk-off sentiment early in quarter centrado no Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement de 2 de Abril, visto pelos market observers como more severe than expected e likely para slow economic growth e boost inflation. Equity indices fell por double-digit rates antes de bottoming a 8 de Abril. Markets subsequently rebounded após Trump pause em most tariffs para allow for negotiations e China e U.S. officials concordaram de-escalation. Panorama forward descreve trade deals como "beginning to take shape" permitindo que companies incorporem tariffs em plans e investors ajustem expectations accordingly. Continuam wildcard mas integrados no thinking forward.

  • April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff scare
  • Bottom a 8 de Abril com rebound subsequente
  • Trade deals como integration into corporate planning forward

Magnificent Seven retoma leadership

bearish saliency alta

Magnificent Seven complex resumed leadership role no trimestre, accounting for most of S&P 500's gains. Group appreciated more than 20% no período, outpacing 10,9% gain para Index e 6,9% gain para todas as stocks do Index outside dos Mag7. Lack de exposição foi headwind para o desempenho do Fundo contra broader market. Large-cap stocks outperformed mid- e small-caps; Growth bateu Value across all market caps. Fund mantém tilt para quality apesar do drawdown relativo, com expectativa de "We believe the Fund is more diversified with less correlation across our holdings than most other sector funds."

  • Mag 7 +20% no trimestre vs +6,9% para rest of Index
  • Large-caps outperformed mid/small caps
  • Growth > Value across market caps

Tema dominante na actividade trimestral. Trim de Accenture explicitamente por "longer-term concerns sobre o impacto de generative AI on the business model" — IA é threat estrutural em consulting/outsourced IT. Em contraste, Intuit defendida como AI-beneficiary: tese sustenta-se em better-than-expected quarterly results e raised annual projecções apesar de perceived AI threats. FactSet (no mencionado individually neste período), FICO, Verisk e Morningstar pressured por broad AI fears em Information Services. Stance bullish leve porque para software holdings o gestor mantém convicção; saída de Digital IT Services em curso reconhece threat só em consulting.

  • Accenture trimmed explicitamente por AI threat estrutural
  • Intuit defendida como AI-beneficiary (raise de projecções)
  • Information Services pressured por broad AI fears (FICO, VRSK, MORN)

Dovish Federal Reserve commentary following muted inflation readings foi destacado como catalyst do mercado. Panorama do gestor enquadra "easing inflation and improving corporate confidence" como supporters de capital markets businesses, e "rising asset prices and steady interest rates" como supporters de retail brokers e asset managers. IBKR e HOOD beneficiaram no trimestre via rebound em equity markets e elevated trading volumes. Trade-off: LPL Financial pressionada porque "earns less interest income on client cash as rates fall."

  • Dovish Fed commentary pós-muted inflation
  • Rising asset prices + steady rates suportam retail brokers
  • Easing inflation + corporate confidence suportam capital markets

FICO's shares underperformed por regulatory pressure do Federal Housing Finance Agency, com new director Bill Pulte a criticize o price de FICO scores no conforming mortgage market. Rising interest rates e potential ramifications para lending activity também pressionaram a stock. Tese mantida pelo gestor mesmo com regulatory overhang — apareceu também em Q3 (carry-forward estrutural).

  • FHFA director Bill Pulte critica pricing de FICO scores
  • Rising rates como secondary headwind

Posições

MELI neutral conv. top manter
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Large Fast Grower +1,4% contrib.

Leading e-commerce marketplace e fintech provider na América Latina. Top holding e top contributor do trimestre. Reportou revenue +37% e EPS +44%. Margin outperformance driven por faster revenue growth em Argentina onde earns highest margins (lower rates → demand de crédito + funding costs + higher consumption). Cross LATAM, gross merchandise volume +40% e total payment volume +72% constant currency. Tese: leading beneficiary do secular growth de e-commerce e digital banking na América Latina.

Adquirida em 2020

V neutral conv. top manter
Visa Inc.
Mega Stalwart

Global payment network. Subiu slightly mas underperformed em relative basis após strong desempenho earlier in year. Underperformance reflectiu concerns sobre competitive threat de stablecoins (blowout returns de Circle Internet Group após o IPO de Junho). Gestor mantém convicção — concerns "overdone" e mantém confidence em growth prospects e competitive advantages das networks. Posição core em Payments holding desde 2020. Mcap acquired $376B → $704B reflecte compounding sustentado.

Adquirida em 2020

SPGI neutral conv. top manter
S&P Global Inc.
Large Stalwart

Leading rating agency e data provider holding desde 2020. Mcap acquired $67,9B → $165,5B. Mentionada na carta como um dos "financial exchanges and data providers" detractors no quarter, likely reflecting market rotation into more speculative stocks. Sem articulação individual de mudança de tese; mantém-se top holding com long growth runway e significant competitive advantages em data services.

Adquirida em 2020

MA neutral conv. top manter
Mastercard Incorporated
Mega Stalwart

Global payment network. Subiu slightly mas underperformed em relative basis após strong desempenho earlier in year, com Visa. Concerns sobre stablecoin competition (Circle IPO) vistas pelo gestor como "overdone". Posição core em Payments holding desde 2020. Mcap acquired $306B → $510B.

Adquirida em 2020

LPLA neutral conv. top manter
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
Large Fast Grower

Leading independent broker-dealer holding desde 2021. Mcap acquired $12,9B → $30,0B. Sem articulação individual de desempenho no trimestre. Tese mantém-se: long-term growth via integração da Commonwealth Financial Network (referida posteriormente em Q3) e poder de lucros intacto.

Adquirida em 2021

INTU neutral conv. top manter
Intuit Inc.
Large Stalwart +1,0% contrib.

Leading provider de accounting software para small businesses e tax preparation software para individuals e tax professionals. Top contributor; shares rose após reporting better-than-expected quarterly results e raised annual projecções. Revenue +15% e EPS +18%, com TurboTax revenue exceeding Street expectations via greater adoption de higher-priced Live assisted services. Revenue growth strong em small business segment apesar de macroeconomic concerns; Credit Karma segment delivered rapid growth. Tese: strong competitive position e numerous growth opportunities.

Adquirida em 2020

GWRE neutral conv. top manter
Guidewire Software, Inc.
Mid Fast Grower +1,0% contrib.

P&C insurance software vendor. Top contributor sem articulação individual no body da carta. Tese mantida: vertical software regulado com switching costs e workflow integration mais insulado de risco AI. Mcap acquired $9,1B → $19,8B (mais do que dobrou desde 2020).

Adquirida em 2020

TW neutral conv. top manter
Tradeweb Markets Inc.
Large Fast Grower -0,2% contrib.

Opera electronic marketplaces para trading de fixed income. Detractor sem articulação individual no body. Tese mantida — strong network effects, long track record de innovation e significant growth opportunities tied to ongoing electronification dos capital markets. Holding desde 2020; mcap acquired $11,1B → $32,0B.

Adquirida em 2020

IBKR neutral conv. top manter
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
Large Fast Grower +0,9% contrib.

Online brokerage firm. Top contributor com desempenho driven por strong quarterly results e rebound em equity markets. Beneficiou da reactivação de Capital Markets pós-Liberation Day. Tese mantida — long runway de crescimento e automation-driven cost advantages. Holding desde 2023; mcap acquired $33,8B → $94,3B.

Adquirida em 2023

KKR neutral conv. top manter
KKR & Co. Inc.
Large Fast Grower

Alternative asset manager adicionada em 2024. Sem articulação individual no trimestre. Tese: beneficiária estrutural de capital markets reactivation e crescimento secular dos privados. Mcap acquired $88,9B → $118,5B.

Adquirida em 2024

HOOD neutral conv. top manter
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Fast Grower +1,6% contrib.

Provider de commission-free trading e investing tools. Largest overall contributor do trimestre. Stock benefited de higher trading activity amid elevated market volatility e strong desempenho across equity e cryptocurrency markets. Customer assets de $255 biliões, +89% YoY. Company anunciou novos crypto-related products — tokenized trading de U.S. stocks e private assets — broadening addressable market. Tese: long-term potencial de lucros driven por strong account growth, rising client assets e rapid pace de product innovation.

Adquirida em 2024

FISV bearish conv. core reduzir
Fiserv, Inc.
Large Stalwart -0,8% contrib.

Global payments e bank technology provider. Top detractor; shares cederam após resultados abaixo das expectations e slowing payment volumes para Clover (small business platform). Clover revenue ainda +20% mas deceleration em volume gerou concerns competitivos. Trimmed por slowdown em Clover + higher execution risk do recent CEO transition. Tese mantida: Clover well positioned, channel checks indicate strong customer satisfaction; espera continuar a gain market share e Fiserv compound EPS em double-digit rate.

PGR bearish conv. core reduzir
The Progressive Corporation
Large Stalwart -0,3% contrib.

Leading auto insurance company. Shares cederam no trimestre. Progressive em "Goldilocks" moment — Junho: policies in force +15%, earned premiums +18%, underwriting margin 14% (vs company's 4% long-term target). Competition a intensificar à medida que peers atingem rate adequacy. Trimmed à medida que company laps cyclical peak. Tese mantida: superior operator, best-in-class execution, well positioned para gain market share.

CWAN bullish conv. core aumentar
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.
Mid Fast Grower -0,2% contrib.

Provider de portfolio accounting e reporting software. Company reportou strong resultados trimestrais e business fundamentals remain solid, mas shares fell por investor concerns sobre integração de three recent acquisitions sem disrupt do core business. Insider selling adicional weighed em sentiment — overhang now largely resolvido. Adicionada na carta (top net purchase $115,2K). Tese: meaningful competitive advantages, potencial de growth em revenue high teens to 20% por several years, business model eficiente que should drive 40%+ adjusted EBITDA margins over time.

INTA neutral conv. core manter
Intapp, Inc.
Fast Grower -0,2% contrib.

Software vendor (professional services automation). Top detractor sem articulação individual no body da carta. Tese inferida do enquadramento sectorial — Enterprise Software underweight versus Benchmark.

FICO neutral conv. core manter
Fair Isaac Corporation
Fast Grower

Data e analytics em consumer credit ecosystem. Detractor em Information Services. FICO's shares underperformed por regulatory pressure do Federal Housing Finance Agency, com new director Bill Pulte a criticize o pricing de FICO scores no conforming mortgage market. Rising interest rates e potential ramifications para lending activity também pressionaram a stock. Tese mantida — dominant market position e continued EPS growth runway.

VRSK neutral conv. core manter
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Stalwart

Insurance data e analytics provider. Detractor em Information Services. Verisk's shares lagged alongside other defensive stocks durante o trimestre apesar de solid resultados trimestrais e upbeat management commentary. Reflecte market rotation away from defensives. Tese mantida.

MORN neutral conv. core manter
Morningstar, Inc.
Stalwart

Leading data provider para a comunidade de investimento. Mencionado entre os "financial exchanges and data providers" detractors no quarter, likely reflecting market rotation into more speculative stocks. Sem articulação individual de mudança de tese.

SCHW bullish conv. core aumentar
The Charles Schwab Corporation
Large Turnaround

Discount broker. Adicionada (top net purchase $662,7K) à medida que company continua a rebound dos challenges relacionados com higher rates e regional banking failures de há dois anos. Balance sheet a melhorar com client inflows e cash generation — lower funding costs e higher net interest margin. No trimestre recente, revenue +25% e EPS +56% com +14% client assets. Esperado crescimento elevado de lucros nos próximos anos.

CME bullish conv. core aumentar
CME Group, Inc.
Large Stalwart

Financial exchange operator. Adicionada ($535,3K top net purchase). Beneficia de higher trading volumes em períodos de volatility — stock como unique portfolio diversifier. Long-term beneficia de global capital markets expansion e bank capital requirements que favorecem centrally cleared securities. ADV +15% YTD a 30 de Junho. Concerns sobre competition de upstart derivatives exchange vistas como overblown — criaram attractive entry point.

ALKT bullish conv. starter aumentar
Alkami Technology Inc.
Small Fast Grower

Cloud-based digital banking platform. Adicionada (top net purchase $474,6K). Sem articulação individual no body da carta.

ATRG bullish conv. starter nova posição
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
Small Fast Grower

P&C insurance para small businesses no excess and surplus lines (E&S) market. Adicionada via IPO durante o trimestre (única nova posição). Opera só no E&S, similar a Kinsale. Long runway com <1% share. Written premiums a crescer >20% per year; post-IPO over-capitalizada vai retain mais business. Comprada a 1,5x book value e <10x lucros estimados — discount a peers, upside via lucros + multiple expansion.

Adquirida em 2025 via IPO

ACN bearish conv. média reduzir
Accenture plc
Large Stalwart

Global IT consulting e digital transformation. Trimmed durante o quarter por slow growth e longer-term concerns sobre o impacto de generative AI no business model. Reconhecimento explícito de que IA é threat estrutural em consulting/outsourced software development — antecipa saída total em Q3 (Digital IT Services categoria).

Citações

We seek to invest in competitively advantaged, growing fintech companies for the long term.

"Procuramos investir em empresas fintech com vantagens competitivas e em crescimento, com horizonte de longo prazo."

Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025) · Q2 2025

The economic outlook is rosier today than it was three months ago when financial markets were awash in fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

"O panorama económico está mais positivo hoje do que estava há três meses, quando os mercados financeiros estavam inundados por medo, incerteza e dúvida."

Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025) · Q2 2025

we know that the only certainty is uncertainty, which is why we can confidently hold our positions during inevitable market pullbacks.

"sabemos que a única certeza é a incerteza, razão pela qual conseguimos manter as nossas posições com confiança durante os inevitáveis pullbacks de mercado."

Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025) · Q2 2025

We believe such concerns are overdone and remain confident in the networks' growth prospects and competitive advantages.

"Acreditamos que estas preocupações são exageradas e mantemo-nos confiantes nas perspectivas de crescimento e vantagens competitivas das networks."

Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025) · Q2 2025

We construct the portfolio with an expectation of economic fluctuations and invest in companies that will thrive over a full economic cycle.

"Construímos o portfólio com a expectativa de flutuações económicas e investimos em empresas capazes de prosperar ao longo de um ciclo económico completo."

Baron FinTech Fund (renomeado Baron Financials ETF a 12/12/2025) · Q2 2025

Performance

Retornos

T2 2025 (NAV, Institutional)
+9,26%
YTD
+7,82%
Desde início
+12,53%
Base
net
CAGR desde inception
+12,53%

Benchmark

FactSet Global FinTech Index

Período
+13,82%
YTD
+5,26%

Benchmarks alternativos

  • S&P 500 Index · +10,94% (YTD +6,20%) — Broad-based benchmark (mercado amplo US)
  • MSCI ACWI Index Net (USD) · +11,53% (YTD +10,05%) — Benchmark global (DM + EM)

Track record anual

Período Fundo Benchmark
6 meses não anualizado (NAV Institutional) +7,82% +5,26%
1 ano (NAV Institutional) +27,74% +23,24%
3 anos anualizado (NAV Institutional) +20,36% +13,49%
5 anos anualizado (NAV Institutional) +10,63% +4,98%
since inception 31/12/2019 anualizado (NAV Institutional) +12,53% +4,55%

Contribuidores

Top contributors: HOOD, MELI, INTU, GWRE, IBKR
Top detractors: FISV, PGR, CWAN, TW, INTA

Attribution

No segundo trimestre, o Fundo subiu mais de 9% mas ficou atrás do FactSet Global FinTech Index e do S&P 500. Underperformance versus o Benchmark foi driven por stock selection em Information Services, Payments e Tech-Enabled Financials. Challengers superaram Leaders por margem larga (+24% vs +5%) pesando dado o tilt do Fundo para Leaders. Ausência de exposição ao Magnificent Seven foi headwind versus broader market, agravado pela elevada exposição a Financials (sector trailed o índice em >5pp). Offsetting parcial veio de Capital Markets (Robinhood, Interactive Brokers) e E-Commerce (MercadoLibre). Detractors específicos: Fiserv (Clover slowdown + CEO transition), Progressive (competition em auto insurance), FICO e Verisk (Information Services rotation + AI fears).

Portfólio

Cash
2,3%
Foreign exposure
11,5%
Top 10 concentração
40,9%
Position count long
46

Sector tilts

  • Financeiras · overweight (significant) — Overweight em Tech-Enabled Financials, Capital Markets, E-Commerce, Information Services e Digital IT Services versus FactSet Global FinTech Index
  • Tecnologia · underweight (modest) — Underweight em Enterprise Software, Payments e Hardware versus FinTech Index

Geographic tilts

  • US · overweight (significant) — International stocks representam apenas 11,5% NAV — concentração doméstica EUA estrutural